Viewing archive of Tuesday, 6 January 1998
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Jan 06 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 006 Issued at 2200Z on 06 JAN 1998IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. NO FLARES WERE OBSERVED.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO ACTIVE. SOLAR WIND DATA SUGGESTS
THAT AN INTERPLANETARY SHOCK ARRIVED AT THE EARTH AT ABOUT 06/1300Z.
THIS SHOCK IS BELIEVED TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE CME OBSERVED ON
JANUARY 03.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS THE
CURRENT DISTURBANCE CONTINUES. ISOLATED STORM PERIODS ARE POSSIBLE.
III. Event Probabilities 07 JAN to 09 JAN
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 JAN 087 Predicted 07 JAN-09 JAN 085/085/085 90 Day Mean 06 JAN 095
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 05 JAN 004/002 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 06 JAN 015/015 PREDICTED AFR/AP 07 JAN-09 JAN 015/015-010/010-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 JAN to 09 JAN
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
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