Viewing archive of Monday, 27 October 1997
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1997 Oct 27 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 300 Issued at 2200Z on 27 OCT 1997IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. SENSORS DETECTED A SERIES
OF OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED MINOR B-CLASS X-RAY EVENTS THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD. REGION 8099 (N19E37) PRODUCED A SINGLE SUBFAINT FLARE. NEW
REGION 8100 (S21E67), A NEW CSO SPOT GROUP, WAS NUMBERED TODAY.
REGION 8098 (S23W43) HAS DEVELOPED A BXO SPOT GROUP ONCE MORE.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
VERY LOW. REGIONS 8099 AND 8100 HAVE AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF PRODUCING
OCCASIONAL ISOLATED C-CLASS FLARES.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO ACTIVE AT ALL LATITUDES. MID
LATITUDES SAW A SINGLE PERIOD OF MINOR STORMING AT ABOUT 27/0300Z.
THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUX RANGED FROM NORMAL TO
HIGH LEVELS.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.
III. Event Probabilities 28 OCT to 30 OCT
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 OCT 084 Predicted 28 OCT-30 OCT 084/084/084 90 Day Mean 27 OCT 087
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 26 OCT 015/014 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 27 OCT 015/015 PREDICTED AFR/AP 28 OCT-30 OCT 010/010-010/010-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 OCT to 30 OCT
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 25% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 15% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 10% |
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