Viewing archive of Sunday, 26 October 1997
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1997 Oct 26 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 299 Issued at 2200Z on 26 OCT 1997IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN VERY LOW. ONLY OCCASIONAL
UNCORRELATED MINOR X-RAY PERTURBATIONS HAVE BEEN NOTED. OPTICAL
REPORTS INDICATE A SMALL FILAMENT DISSAPPEARED FROM REGION 8098
(S26W29). THIS REGION HAS SHOWN MINOR PLAGE INTENSITY FLUCUATIONS AS
WELL AS INTERMITTENT PORE FORMATION AND DECAY. REGION 8099 (N19E52)
IS SLOWLY GROWING BUT HAS REMAINED INACTIVE AND QUIET. THE REMAINDER
OF THE VISIBLE DISK AND LIMB HAVE BEEN QUIET AND STABLE.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
VERY LOW FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. REGION 8099 HAS ONLY A
SMALL CHANCE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED C-CLASS EVENTS.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET TO ACTIVE AT ALL LATITUDES.
SPACE-BASED SENSORS INDICATE A LOW-DENSITY, HIGH-VELOCITY SOLAR WIND
STREAM CONSISTENT WITH CORONAL HOLE EFFECTS. DATA INDICATE A
POOR-QUALITY NORTHERN CORONAL HOLE EXTENSION IS MOVING JUST WEST OF
A GEO-EFFECTIVELY FAVORABLE POSITION. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV
ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUX REACHED HIGH LEVELS AT 26/1628Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.
III. Event Probabilities 27 OCT to 29 OCT
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 OCT 082 Predicted 27 OCT-29 OCT 082/082/080 90 Day Mean 26 OCT 086
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 25 OCT 014/019 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 26 OCT 011/020 PREDICTED AFR/AP 27 OCT-29 OCT 015/010-010/008-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 OCT to 29 OCT
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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