Viewing archive of Tuesday, 1 April 1997

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1997 Apr 01 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 091 Issued at 2200Z on 01 APR 1997

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. REGION 8026 (S25E07), A 13 SPOT 'CAO' GROUP, GENERATED A SINGLE M1/1B FLARE AT 01/1348, WHICH WAS PRECEEDED BY THREE C-CLASS EVENTS. THE REGION HAD BEEN SURGING PRIOR TO, BUT HAD STOPPED BEFORE THE ONSET OF THE M1 EVENT. AN ASSOCIATED HIGH SPEED DARK SURGE ACCOMPANIED THE M1 FLARE. ALL FOUR FLARES OCCURRED NEAR THE SMALL OPPOSITE POLARITY FIELD EAST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST PENUMBRA, WHICH SUPPORTS THE MT. WILSON SOLAR OBSERVATORY'S MAGNETIC CLASSIFICATION OF THIS REGION AS A BETA-GAMMA-DELTA. NUMEROUS RADIO BURSTS AT VARIOUS FREQUENCIES WERE OBSERVED BEORE AND AFTER THE FLARE ACTIVITY. IN ADDITION, TWO FILAMENTS DISSAPPEARED OVERNIGHT FROM REGION 8026, WITH THE LARGER OF THE TWO (7 DEGREES) HAVING BECOME HIGHLY ACTIVE PRIOR TO DISAPPEARING.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY LOW TO LOW, WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENTS FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS MOSTLY UNSETTLED FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE REPORTING PERIOD, WITH A SINGLE PERIOD OF ACTIVE CONDITIONS RECORDED AT FREDRICKSBURG DURING THE INTERVAL 01/0300-0600Z, AND THEN QUIET FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRONS WERE IN THE MODERATE TO HIGH RANGE.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS, WITH A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED PERIODS OF ACTIVE CONDITIONS.
III. Event Probabilities 02 APR to 04 APR
Class M20%15%10%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       01 APR 076
  Predicted   02 APR-04 APR  076/077/078
  90 Day Mean        01 APR 074
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 31 MAR  007/005
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 01 APR  012/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 02 APR-04 APR  010/010-010/010-010/006
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 APR to 04 APR
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%20%20%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%25%25%
Minor storm15%15%15%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

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