Viewing archive of Sunday, 30 March 1997
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1997 Mar 30 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 089 Issued at 2200Z on 30 MAR 1997IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. NO FLARES OCCURRED. REGION
8026 (S25E32), THE LONE ACTIVE REGION ON THE VISIBLE DISK, CONTINUES
TO SHOW SLOW GROWTH AND IS CURRENTLY A 19 SPOT 'ESO' GROUP. ALTHOUGH
ALL AIR FORCE OBSERVING STATIONS LIST THIS GROUP WITH A BETA
MAGNETIC CLASSIFICATION, THE MT. WILSON SOLAR OBSERVATORY DEFINED IT
TODAY AS A MORE COMPLEX BETA-GAMMA-DELTA.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW TO LOW. REGION 8026 HAS A FAIR CHANCE (30-40%) TO PRODUCE
OCCASIONAL C-CLASS EVENTS, AND A SLIGHT CHANCE (5-10%) FOR AN
ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENT.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN MOSTLY UNSETTLED FOR THE PAST 24
HOURS, WITH ISOLATED PERIODS OF ACTIVE CONDITIONS RECORDED DURING
THE INTERVAL 29/2100-30/0600Z. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRONS WERE
AT HIGH LEVELS UNTIL CROSSING THE VERY HIGH THRESHOLD AT 30/1710Z,
WHERE THEY REMAINED FOR THE BALANCE OF THE REPORTING PERIOD.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS, WITH THE
CHANCE FOR ISOLATED PERIODS OF ACTIVE CONDITIONS.
III. Event Probabilities 31 MAR to 02 APR
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 MAR 074 Predicted 31 MAR-02 APR 075/076/077 90 Day Mean 30 MAR 074
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 29 MAR 014/015 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 30 MAR 010/015 PREDICTED AFR/AP 31 MAR-02 APR 010/012-010/010-015/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 MAR to 02 APR
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
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