Viewing archive of Wednesday, 5 February 1997
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1997 Feb 05 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 036 Issued at 2200Z on 05 FEB 1997IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. REGION 8015 (N05W64) IS A
'DAO' BETA WITH SIX SPOTS AND REGION 8016 (S20W18) IS A 'HRX' ALPHA.
REGION 8016 APPEARS TO BE A NEW CYCLE REGION (I.E. NEGATIVE LEADER
POLE AND A POSITIVE TRAILER). THERE HAVE BEEN NO FLARES.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
VERY LOW.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET TO UNSETTLED AT ALL LATITUDES
AND THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRONS HAVE BEEN AT HIGH LEVELS.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET.
III. Event Probabilities 06 FEB to 08 FEB
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 FEB 075 Predicted 06 FEB-08 FEB 078/077/075 90 Day Mean 05 FEB 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 04 FEB 004/005 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 05 FEB 005/008 PREDICTED AFR/AP 06 FEB-08 FEB 005/012-010/010-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 FEB to 08 FEB
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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