Viewing archive of Sunday, 27 October 1996
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1996 Oct 27 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 301 Issued at 2200Z on 27 OCT 1996IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. NO FLARES OCCURRED.
REGION 7991 (N30W18) IS CURRENTLY A SPOTLESS PLAGE, WHILE
YESTERDAY'S NEW REGION 7992 (S15W41) HAS DECAYED SIGNIFICANTLY
FROM A THREE SPOT 'CRO' BETA GROUP TO A SINGLE 'AXX' SPOT.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
VERY LOW.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN AT MOSTLY QUIET LEVELS FOR
PAST 24 HOURS, WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING A SINGLE UNSETTLED
PERIOD RECORDED AT FREDERICKSBURG DURING THE INTERVAL
27/0900-1200Z. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX
CONTINUES TO FLUCTUATE IN THE MODERATE TO HIGH RANGE.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III. Event Probabilities 28 OCT to 30 OCT
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 OCT 072 Predicted 28 OCT-30 OCT 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 27 OCT 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 26 OCT 005/005 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 27 OCT 007/005 PREDICTED AFR/AP 28 OCT-30 OCT 010/008-010/008-005/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 OCT to 30 OCT
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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