Viewing archive of Wednesday, 16 October 1996
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1996 Oct 16 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 290 Issued at 2200Z on 16 OCT 1996IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. THE DISK REMAINS
SPOTLESS.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
VERY LOW.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED
LEVELS FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS. ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUXES AT
GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WERE MODERATE TO HIGH.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE. CORONAL HOLE EFFECTS ARE
STILL EXPECTED ON OCTOBER 17.
III. Event Probabilities 17 OCT to 19 OCT
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 OCT 069 Predicted 17 OCT-19 OCT 069/069/070 90 Day Mean 16 OCT 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 15 OCT 005/005 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 16 OCT 008/012 PREDICTED AFR/AP 17 OCT-19 OCT 020/020-020/020-020/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 OCT to 19 OCT
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
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