Viewing archive of Saturday, 5 October 1996
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1996 Oct 05 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 279 Issued at 2200Z on 05 OCT 1996IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. NO FLARES OCCURRED AS
THE ENTIRE VISIBLE DISK AND LIMB REMAIN FEATURELESS AND QUIET.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
VERY LOW.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTYLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS, WITH ACTIVITY INCREASING TO MOSTLY UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
III. Event Probabilities 06 OCT to 08 OCT
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 OCT 069 Predicted 06 OCT-08 OCT 068/068/068 90 Day Mean 05 OCT 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 04 OCT 006/005 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 05 OCT 005/005 PREDICTED AFR/AP 06 OCT-08 OCT 010/010-020/015-020/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 OCT to 08 OCT
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
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