Viewing archive of Sunday, 29 September 1996
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1996 Sep 29 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 273 Issued at 2200Z on 29 SEP 1996IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. THE VISIBLE DISK
REMAINS SPOTLESS.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
VERY LOW.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED
LEVELS FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ENERGETIC
ELECTRON FLUX HAS BEEN AT HIGH LEVELS SINCE ABOUT 29/1330Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST
PERIOD.
III. Event Probabilities 30 SEP to 02 OCT
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 SEP 070 Predicted 30 SEP-02 OCT 070/070/068 90 Day Mean 29 SEP 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 28 SEP 019/017 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 29 SEP 010/013 PREDICTED AFR/AP 30 SEP-02 OCT 015/020-010/018-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 SEP to 02 OCT
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 20% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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