Viewing archive of Saturday, 7 September 1996
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1996 Sep 07 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 251 Issued at 2200Z on 07 SEP 1996IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY CONTINUED VERY LOW. A SMALL NEW
CYCLE REGION EMERGED AT S26E02 AND WAS NUMBERED AS REGION 7988.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN AT
VERY LOW LEVELS FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS PREDOMINANTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED
DURING THE PERIOD. ACTIVE LEVELS WERE DETECTED AT MID AND
HIGH LATITUDES IN THE 07/0600-0900Z INTERVAL. ENERGETIC
ELECTRON FLUXES AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WERE LOW TO
MODERATE.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
FORECAST TO BE QUIET TO SLIGHTLY UNSETTLED FOR 08-09 SEP.
PRIMARILY UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON 10 SEP WITH THE
RETURN OF A SMALL RECURRENT DISTURBANCE.
III. Event Probabilities 08 SEP to 10 SEP
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 SEP 070 Predicted 08 SEP-10 SEP 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 07 SEP 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 06 SEP 006/006 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 07 SEP 008/008 PREDICTED AFR/AP 08 SEP-10 SEP 005/007-005/007-010/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 SEP to 10 SEP
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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