Archiv von Sonntag, 22 Juni 2003 anzeigen
Sonnenaktivitätsbericht
Für jede Sonneneruption in diesem Bericht wird ein Skalierungsfaktor vom Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) angewendet. Aufgrund dieses SWPC-Skalierungsfaktors werden Sonneneruptionen um 42 % kleiner gemeldet als die Daten für wissenschaftliche Zwecke. Der Skalierungsfaktor wurde aus unseren archivierten Sonneneruptionsdaten entfernt, um die tatsächlichen physikalischen Einheiten widerzuspiegeln.
Bericht der solaren und geophysikalischen Aktivität 2003 Jun 22 2200 UTC
Erstellt von NOAA © SWPC und verarbeitet von SpaceWeatherLive.comGemeinsamer Bericht der USAF und NOAA zur solaren und geophysikalischen Aktivität
SDF Nummer 173 ausgestellt am 22 Jun 2003 um 2200 Uhr UTC
IA. Analyse der aktiven Sonnenflecken-Gruppen und der Aktivität vom 21-2100Z Uhr bis 22-2100Z Uhr
Solar activity was low. Just a single C-class flare
this period - a C1/Sf at 22/0949Z from Region 388 (S02W32). This
region has shown little change this period and still contains some
weak magnetic mixing. Moderately complex Region 386 (S06W08) still
maintains a weak delta configuration, but was quiet this period as
it continues to slowly decay. Region 387 (N18E10) is the largest
region the visible disk, but was also quiet. A new region rotating
around the east limb was numbered today as Region 390.
IB. Sonnenaktivitäts-Prognose
Solar activity is expected to continue
at low levels. There is a small chance for an isolated low M-class
flare from Regions 386, 387 and 388.
IIA. Geophysikalische Aktivität vom 21-2100Z Uhr bis 22-2100Z Uhr
The geomagnetic field was unsettled to active due to a high speed
coronal hole stream. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysikalische Aktivitätsprognose
The geomagnetic field is
expected to continue at unsettled to active levels due to coronal
hole high speed flow.
III. Ereignis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten 23 Jun bis 25 Jun
Klasse M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
Klasse X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
Protonensturm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
PCAF | green
|
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Beobachtet 22 Jun 110
Vorhergesagt 23 Jun-25 Jun 110/115/115
90 Tage Mittel 22 Jun 126
V. Geomagnetischer Ap Index
Beobachtet Afr/Ap 21 Jun 016/023
Geschätzt Afr/Ap 22 Jun 015/015
Vorhergesagt Afr/Ap 23 Jun-25 Jun 015/015-012/012-012/012
VI. Geomagnetische Aktivität - Wahrscheinlichkeiten 23 Jun bis 25 Jun
A. Mittlere Breiten |
Aktiv | 35% | 30% | 30% |
Geringer Sturm | 15% | 10% | 10% |
Schwerwiegender Sturm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
B. Hohe Breiten |
Aktiv | 40% | 35% | 35% |
Geringer Sturm | 20% | 15% | 15% |
Schwerwiegender Sturm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
Comments
K-Indices
On 16 June, it was determined that a scaling problem exists with the Boulder magnetometer instrument. While this problem, and its fix are being investigated, the primary instrument for Boulder K-indices has been switched to the Boulder USGS (via Domsat) magnetometer, effective 1500 UTC on 16 June.
GOES Protons
To ensure continued operational monitoring of important energetic particle data, it is necessary to reassign primary/secondary designations for the GOES Space Environment Monitor (SEM) detectors. GOES 11 (113W) is now the primary satellite for protons. GOES 12 will continue as the primary satellite for magnetometer, X-ray, and electron measurements. GOES 10 (135W) will be the secondary satellite for all SEM sensors - magnetometer, X-ray, and energetic particles. Because of the degraded state of the proton data on GOES-10, its designation as the secondary source for proton data is a short-term solution. More permanent solutions have been identified and are being evaluated. Users will be notified when we define and schedule a permanent fix. Further details can be found at http://www.sec.noaa.gov/GOES.html.
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