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Sonnenaktivitätsbericht
Für jede Sonneneruption in diesem Bericht wird ein Skalierungsfaktor vom Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) angewendet. Aufgrund dieses SWPC-Skalierungsfaktors werden Sonneneruptionen um 42 % kleiner gemeldet als die Daten für wissenschaftliche Zwecke. Der Skalierungsfaktor wurde aus unseren archivierten Sonneneruptionsdaten entfernt, um die tatsächlichen physikalischen Einheiten widerzuspiegeln.
Bericht der solaren und geophysikalischen Aktivität 2003 Jun 21 2200 UTC
Erstellt von NOAA © SWPC und verarbeitet von SpaceWeatherLive.comGemeinsamer Bericht der USAF und NOAA zur solaren und geophysikalischen Aktivität
SDF Nummer 172 ausgestellt am 21 Jun 2003 um 2200 Uhr UTC
IA. Analyse der aktiven Sonnenflecken-Gruppen und der Aktivität vom 20-2100Z Uhr bis 21-2100Z Uhr
Solar activity was at low levels. Region 388 (S03W19)
produced the largest flare of the period, a C2.5/Sf that occurred at
21/1313Z along with many lesser flares during the interval. This
region showed rapid growth during the period with a more than
doubling of the penumbral coverage. Region 386 (S07E04) produced
several lesser C-class flares today and has been in a steady decay
phase since yesterday. The delta magnetic structure is still intact
in the leading edge of the spot cluster. Region 387 (N18E23) was
fairly quiescent today although it still depicts a beta-gamma
magnetic complex. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Sonnenaktivitäts-Prognose
Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels. Regions 386, 387, and 388 all have the
potential for producing M-class flare activity.
IIA. Geophysikalische Aktivität vom 20-2100Z Uhr bis 21-2100Z Uhr
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to minor storm levels.
Sustained periods of southward Bz along with elevated solar wind
speeds led to the occasional storming conditions. The greater than
2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels
today.
IIB. Geophysikalische Aktivitätsprognose
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to active levels. Isolated minor storm
conditions are possible throughout the period due to a recurrent
high speed coronal hole stream.
III. Ereignis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten 22 Jun bis 24 Jun
Klasse M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
Klasse X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
Protonensturm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
PCAF | yellow
|
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Beobachtet 21 Jun 115
Vorhergesagt 22 Jun-24 Jun 115/115/115
90 Tage Mittel 21 Jun 126
V. Geomagnetischer Ap Index
Beobachtet Afr/Ap 20 Jun 010/012
Geschätzt Afr/Ap 21 Jun 018/025
Vorhergesagt Afr/Ap 22 Jun-24 Jun 012/015-015/015-012/012
VI. Geomagnetische Aktivität - Wahrscheinlichkeiten 22 Jun bis 24 Jun
A. Mittlere Breiten |
Aktiv | 25% | 35% | 25% |
Geringer Sturm | 10% | 20% | 10% |
Schwerwiegender Sturm | 01% | 05% | 01% |
B. Hohe Breiten |
Aktiv | 35% | 35% | 30% |
Geringer Sturm | 20% | 20% | 15% |
Schwerwiegender Sturm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
PLAIN
K-Indices:
On 16 June, it was determined that a scaling problem exists with the Boulder magnetometer instrument. While this problem, and its fix are being investigated the primary instrument for Boulder K-indices has been switched to the Boulder USGS (via Domsat) magnetometer, effective 1500 UTC on 16 June.
GOES Protons:
To ensure continued operational monitoring of important energetic particle data, it is necessary to reassign primary/secondary designations for the GOES Space Environment Monitor (SEM) detectors. GOES 11 (113W) is now the primary satellite for protons. GOES 12 will continue as the primary satellite for magnetometer, X-ray, and electron measurements. GOES 10 (135W) will be the secondary satellite for all SEM sensors - magnetometer, X-ray, and energetic particles. Because of the degraded state of the proton data on GOES-10, its designation as the secondary source for proton data is a short-term solution. More permanent solutions have been identified and are being evaluated. Users will be notified when we define and schedule a permanent fix. Further details can be found at http://www.sec.noaa.gov/GOES.html.
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