Viser arkiv af torsdag, 26 april 2012
Solaktivitetsrapport
Ethvert nævnt soludbrud i denne rapport har en skaleringsfaktor anvendt af Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). På grund af SWPC-skaleringsfaktoren rapporteres soludbrud som 42 % mindre end for videnskabelige kvalitetsdata. Skaleringsfaktoren er blevet fjernet fra vores arkiverede soludbrudsdata for at afspejle de sande fysiske enheder.
Rapport om sol-geofysisk aktivitet 2012 Apr 26 2200 UTCUdarbejdet af NOAA © SWPC og behandlet af SpaceWeatherLive.com
Fælles USAF/NOAA-rapport om sol- og geofysisk aktivitet
SDF nummer 117 Udstedt til 2200Z på 26 Apr 2012IA. Analyse af solaktive områder og aktivitet fra 25-2100Z til 26-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. Region 1460 (N15W93)
and Region 1465 (S18W39) both produced C1 x-ray events at 25/2242Z
and 26/1723Z respectively. Both had associated CMEs but neither are
expected to be geoeffective. Three consecutive CMEs appeared on
LASCO/C2 imagery at 26/0924Z, 26/1148Z, and 26/1638Z. All three
were around the west limb and are not expected to be geoeffective.
IB. Solaktivitetsprognose
Solar activity is expected to remain
low with a slight chance for M-class activity for the next three
days (27 - 29 April).
IIA. Geofysisk aktivitetsoversigt 25-2100Z til 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic field started the period at minor storm levels, but
fell to quiet levels and remained mostly quiet for the remainder of
the period. This activity was attributed to Coronal Hole High Speed
Stream (CH HSS) effects. Solar wind speeds have steadily decreased
from approximately 730 km/s to approximately 560 km/s. The Bz
component of the interplanetary magnetic field has remained fairly
neutral with minor fluctuations between +3 and -5 nT. Overall, the
total field fluctuated between +2 and +8 nT. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels throughout
the period.
IIB. Geofysisk aktivitetsprognose
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels with isolated active
periods for day one (27 April) as CH HSS effects begin to wane.
Days two and three (28 -29 April) are expected to be mostly quiet.
III. Hændelsessandsynligheder 27 Apr til 29 Apr
| Klasse M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Klasse X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10,7 cm Flux
Observeret 26 Apr 119 Forudsagt 27 Apr-29 Apr 115/110/105 90 dages gennemsnit 26 Apr 112
V. Geomagnetiske A-indekser
Observeret Afr/Ap 25 Apr 018/031 Anslået Afr/Ap 26 Apr 013/017 Forudsagt Afr/Ap 27 Apr-29 Apr 007/010-004/005-004/005
VI. Geomagnetisk aktivitetssandsynlighed 27 Apr til 29 Apr
| A. Mellemste breddegrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiv | 20% | 10% | 10% |
| Mindre storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Større-alvorlig storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Høje breddegrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiv | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Mindre storm | 25% | 15% | 15% |
| Større-alvorlig storm | 25% | 10% | 10% |
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