Viser arkiv af onsdag, 13 december 2006
Solaktivitetsrapport
Ethvert nævnt soludbrud i denne rapport har en skaleringsfaktor anvendt af Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). På grund af SWPC-skaleringsfaktoren rapporteres soludbrud som 42 % mindre end for videnskabelige kvalitetsdata. Skaleringsfaktoren er blevet fjernet fra vores arkiverede soludbrudsdata for at afspejle de sande fysiske enheder.
Rapport om sol-geofysisk aktivitet 2006 Dec 13 2245 UTCUdarbejdet af NOAA © SWPC og behandlet af SpaceWeatherLive.com
Fælles USAF/NOAA-rapport om sol- og geofysisk aktivitet
SDF nummer 347 Udstedt til 2200Z på 13 Dec 2006IA. Analyse af solaktive områder og aktivitet fra 12-2100Z til 13-2100Z Solar activity was high. Region 930 (S05W33) produced
an X3.4/4B flare with a 44000 sfu 10 cm radio burst at 13/0240 UTC.
Type II (1534 km/s) and Type IV radio sweeps were associated with
this event, as well as a fast moving CME (estimated plane of sky
speed of 1500 km/s). Region 930 has a strong delta configuration in
the southern penumbral area of the leader spot.
IB. Solaktivitetsprognose
Solar activity is expected to reach
moderate to high levels. Isolated X-class flares are possible from
Region 930.
IIA. Geofysisk aktivitetsoversigt 12-2100Z til 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels for the last 24
hours. A greater than 100 MeV proton event started at 13/0245 UTC,
and reached a maximum of 88.7 pfu at 13/0525 UTC. A greater than 10
MeV proton event started at 13/0250 UTC, and reached a maximum of
698 pfu at 13/0925 UTC. These events are associated with the X3
event from Region 930. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.
IIB. Geofysisk aktivitetsprognose
The geomagnetic field is
expected to reach major to severe storm levels. Activity from the
CME observed early on 13 December is expected to impact the
geomagnetic field by mid to late UTC on day 1 (14 December) of the
forecast period. Major to severe storm conditions are expected to
continue early into 15 December. Levels should decrease to unsettled
to minor storming by 16 December. The greater than 100 MeV and 10
MeV proton events now in progress are expected to continue for the
next 24 to 48 hours.
III. Hændelsessandsynligheder 14 Dec til 16 Dec
| Klasse M | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Klasse X | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Proton | 99% | 99% | 75% |
| PCAF | in progress | ||
IV. Penticton 10,7 cm Flux
Observeret 13 Dec 094 Forudsagt 14 Dec-16 Dec 095/095/095 90 dages gennemsnit 13 Dec 081
V. Geomagnetiske A-indekser
Observeret Afr/Ap 12 Dec 015/026 Anslået Afr/Ap 13 Dec 008/010 Forudsagt Afr/Ap 14 Dec-16 Dec 065/130-050/100-012/020
VI. Geomagnetisk aktivitetssandsynlighed 14 Dec til 16 Dec
| A. Mellemste breddegrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiv | 10% | 10% | 30% |
| Mindre storm | 25% | 25% | 15% |
| Større-alvorlig storm | 55% | 45% | 05% |
| B. Høje breddegrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiv | 15% | 15% | 30% |
| Mindre storm | 20% | 20% | 25% |
| Større-alvorlig storm | 65% | 55% | 15% |
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