Viser arkiv af fredag, 28 december 2001

Solaktivitetsrapport

Ethvert nævnt soludbrud i denne rapport har en skaleringsfaktor anvendt af Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). På grund af SWPC-skaleringsfaktoren rapporteres soludbrud som 42 % mindre end for videnskabelige kvalitetsdata. Skaleringsfaktoren er blevet fjernet fra vores arkiverede soludbrudsdata for at afspejle de sande fysiske enheder.
Rapport om sol-geofysisk aktivitet 2001 Dec 28 2200 UTC
Udarbejdet af NOAA © SWPC og behandlet af SpaceWeatherLive.com

Fælles USAF/NOAA-rapport om sol- og geofysisk aktivitet

SDF nummer 362 Udstedt til 2200Z på 28 Dec 2001

IA. Analyse af solaktive områder og aktivitet fra 27-2100Z til 28-2100Z

Solar activity was high. An X3.4 flare from an apparent east limb source occurred at 28/2045 UTC, and remained in progress at the end of the period. This event was accompanied by bright loops visible in h-alpha imagery behind the east limb near S27. A fainter prominence was also visible on the northwest limb near the approximate location of Region 9742 (N12W94), but the lack of subsequent energetic particle enhancements seems to favor the east limb source. Other activity included an impulsive M4/Sf from Region 9742 at 28/0351 UTC, and weaker M-class events from Regions 9748 (S11W76) and 9754 (S08W02). Two new regions were numbered today: 9764 (N12E15) and 9765 (N05E77).
IB. Solaktivitetsprognose
Solar activity is expected to remain moderate to high for the next three days.
IIA. Geofysisk aktivitetsoversigt 27-2100Z til 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The greater than 10 MeV proton event which had been in progress since 26 December ended today. The event began at 26/0605 UTC, reached a maximum flux of 779 pfu at 26/1115 UTC, and ended at 28/1040 UTC.
IIB. Geofysisk aktivitetsprognose
The increase in geomagnetic field activity, which had been expected for today, has not yet occurred, but precursors in solar wind data from the ACE satellite suggest that a shock arrival may still yet occur, perhaps within the next 10 hours or so. Uncertainty in the earthward speed of shock propagation from the CME event of 26 December is a likely cause for the delay, though this event could also miss the Earth. Unsettled to minor storm conditions, and isolated major storms conditions at higher latitudes, remain possible within the first day of the forecast period. Predominantly quiet to unsettled conditions are expected thereafter.
III. Hændelsessandsynligheder 29 Dec til 31 Dec
Klasse M75%75%75%
Klasse X10%10%10%
Proton10%10%10%
PCAFred
IV. Penticton 10,7 cm Flux
  Observeret       28 Dec 263
  Forudsagt   29 Dec-31 Dec  260/255/255
  90 dages gennemsnit        28 Dec 218
V. Geomagnetiske A-indekser
  Observeret Afr/Ap 27 Dec  010/006
  Anslået     Afr/Ap 28 Dec  012/010
  Forudsagt    Afr/Ap 29 Dec-31 Dec  025/030-012/015-008/010
VI. Geomagnetisk aktivitetssandsynlighed 29 Dec til 31 Dec
A. Mellemste breddegrader
Aktiv30%20%15%
Mindre storm20%05%05%
Større-alvorlig storm05%01%01%
B. Høje breddegrader
Aktiv35%25%15%
Mindre storm25%10%05%
Større-alvorlig storm10%05%01%

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