Viser arkiv af fredag, 28 december 2001
Solaktivitetsrapport
Ethvert nævnt soludbrud i denne rapport har en skaleringsfaktor anvendt af Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). På grund af SWPC-skaleringsfaktoren rapporteres soludbrud som 42 % mindre end for videnskabelige kvalitetsdata. Skaleringsfaktoren er blevet fjernet fra vores arkiverede soludbrudsdata for at afspejle de sande fysiske enheder.
Rapport om sol-geofysisk aktivitet 2001 Dec 28 2200 UTCUdarbejdet af NOAA © SWPC og behandlet af SpaceWeatherLive.com
Fælles USAF/NOAA-rapport om sol- og geofysisk aktivitet
SDF nummer 362 Udstedt til 2200Z på 28 Dec 2001IA. Analyse af solaktive områder og aktivitet fra 27-2100Z til 28-2100Z Solar activity was high. An X3.4 flare from an
apparent east limb source occurred at 28/2045 UTC, and remained in
progress at the end of the period. This event was accompanied by
bright loops visible in h-alpha imagery behind the east limb near
S27. A fainter prominence was also visible on the northwest limb
near the approximate location of Region 9742 (N12W94), but the lack
of subsequent energetic particle enhancements seems to favor the
east limb source. Other activity included an impulsive M4/Sf from
Region 9742 at 28/0351 UTC, and weaker M-class events from Regions
9748 (S11W76) and 9754 (S08W02). Two new regions were numbered
today: 9764 (N12E15) and 9765 (N05E77).
IB. Solaktivitetsprognose
Solar activity is expected to remain
moderate to high for the next three days.
IIA. Geofysisk aktivitetsoversigt 27-2100Z til 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The greater than 10
MeV proton event which had been in progress since 26 December ended
today. The event began at 26/0605 UTC, reached a maximum flux of
779 pfu at 26/1115 UTC, and ended at 28/1040 UTC.
IIB. Geofysisk aktivitetsprognose
The increase in geomagnetic
field activity, which had been expected for today, has not yet
occurred, but precursors in solar wind data from the ACE satellite
suggest that a shock arrival may still yet occur, perhaps within the
next 10 hours or so. Uncertainty in the earthward speed of shock
propagation from the CME event of 26 December is a likely cause for
the delay, though this event could also miss the Earth. Unsettled
to minor storm conditions, and isolated major storms conditions at
higher latitudes, remain possible within the first day of the
forecast period. Predominantly quiet to unsettled conditions are
expected thereafter.
III. Hændelsessandsynligheder 29 Dec til 31 Dec
| Klasse M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Klasse X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | red | ||
IV. Penticton 10,7 cm Flux
Observeret 28 Dec 263 Forudsagt 29 Dec-31 Dec 260/255/255 90 dages gennemsnit 28 Dec 218
V. Geomagnetiske A-indekser
Observeret Afr/Ap 27 Dec 010/006 Anslået Afr/Ap 28 Dec 012/010 Forudsagt Afr/Ap 29 Dec-31 Dec 025/030-012/015-008/010
VI. Geomagnetisk aktivitetssandsynlighed 29 Dec til 31 Dec
| A. Mellemste breddegrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiv | 30% | 20% | 15% |
| Mindre storm | 20% | 05% | 05% |
| Større-alvorlig storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Høje breddegrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiv | 35% | 25% | 15% |
| Mindre storm | 25% | 10% | 05% |
| Større-alvorlig storm | 10% | 05% | 01% |
Alle tider i UTC
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