Viser arkiv af fredag, 27 april 2001
Solaktivitetsrapport
Ethvert nævnt soludbrud i denne rapport har en skaleringsfaktor anvendt af Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). På grund af SWPC-skaleringsfaktoren rapporteres soludbrud som 42 % mindre end for videnskabelige kvalitetsdata. Skaleringsfaktoren er blevet fjernet fra vores arkiverede soludbrudsdata for at afspejle de sande fysiske enheder.
Rapport om sol-geofysisk aktivitet 2001 Apr 27 2200 UTCUdarbejdet af NOAA © SWPC og behandlet af SpaceWeatherLive.com
Fælles USAF/NOAA-rapport om sol- og geofysisk aktivitet
SDF nummer 117 Udstedt til 2200Z på 27 Apr 2001IA. Analyse af solaktive områder og aktivitet fra 26-2100Z til 27-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. Region 9433 (N18W39)
produced an M1/1f flare at 27/1915 UTC along with isolated C-class
subflares. Region 9433 began to gradually decay following
yesterday's M7/2b flare with decreased spot count and penumbral
coverage. However, a magnetic delta configuration persisted in the
trailer portion of the region, where most flare activity has
occurred. Region 9441 (N08E38) produced isolated subflares as it
gradually increased in spot count and penumbral coverage, though it
remained a moderate-sized, simply-structured spot group. New Region
9443 (S10E21), a small simple bipole, was numbered.
IB. Solaktivitetsprognose
Activity is expected to be at moderate
to high levels. Region 9433 is expected to produce mostly low-level
M-class flares. However, it may produce an isolated major flare
during the period.
IIA. Geofysisk aktivitetsoversigt 26-2100Z til 27-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels. The
greater than 10 MeV electron flux became enhanced following
yesterdays M7/2b flare, but did not reach event levels.
IIB. Geofysisk aktivitetsprognose
A geomagnetic disturbance is
expected to commence during the latter half of 28 April and continue
into 29 April following yesterday's M7/2b flare and associated
full-halo CME . Active to major storm levels will be possible during
this disturbance. Mostly unsettled levels are expected during 30
April. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux could increase to event
levels on 28 April. Region 9433 may produce a proton flare during
the period.
III. Hændelsessandsynligheder 28 Apr til 30 Apr
| Klasse M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Klasse X | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Proton | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10,7 cm Flux
Observeret 27 Apr 191 Forudsagt 28 Apr-30 Apr 185/180/175 90 dages gennemsnit 27 Apr 167
V. Geomagnetiske A-indekser
Observeret Afr/Ap 26 Apr 008/007 Anslået Afr/Ap 27 Apr 005/008 Forudsagt Afr/Ap 28 Apr-30 Apr 015/010-040/040-012/020
VI. Geomagnetisk aktivitetssandsynlighed 28 Apr til 30 Apr
| A. Mellemste breddegrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiv | 25% | 30% | 40% |
| Mindre storm | 20% | 35% | 20% |
| Større-alvorlig storm | 05% | 10% | 05% |
| B. Høje breddegrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiv | 30% | 25% | 45% |
| Mindre storm | 25% | 40% | 25% |
| Større-alvorlig storm | 10% | 15% | 10% |
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