Viser arkiv af onsdag, 6 maj 1998

Solaktivitetsrapport

Ethvert nævnt soludbrud i denne rapport har en skaleringsfaktor anvendt af Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). På grund af SWPC-skaleringsfaktoren rapporteres soludbrud som 42 % mindre end for videnskabelige kvalitetsdata. Skaleringsfaktoren er blevet fjernet fra vores arkiverede soludbrudsdata for at afspejle de sande fysiske enheder.
Rapport om sol-geofysisk aktivitet 1998 May 06 2200 UTC
Udarbejdet af NOAA © SWPC og behandlet af SpaceWeatherLive.com

Fælles USAF/NOAA-rapport om sol- og geofysisk aktivitet

SDF nummer 126 Udstedt til 2200Z på 06 MAY 1998

IA. Analyse af solaktive områder og aktivitet fra 05-2100Z til 06-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS HIGH. REGION 8210 (S15W75) PRODUCED AN X2/1N FLARE AT 0809Z WHICH HAD VERY STRONG ASSOCIATED RADIO BURSTS AND A TYPE IV RADIO SWEEP. THE X2 WAS JUST PRECEDED BY AN M2 FROM THE SAME REGION AT 0725Z. REGION 8210 ALSO PRODUCED AN M2/2N FLARE AT 05/2346Z WHICH HAD ASSOCIATED TYPE II AND TYPE IV SWEEPS. LASCO OBSERVERS REPORTED THREE CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS DURING THE TIME PERIOD: THE FIRST WAS A PARTIAL HALO AT 0002Z AND COULD BE REASONABLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE M2/2N. THE SECOND WAS AT 0228Z FROM THE NORTH EAST AND APPEARS TO BE AN EVENT BEHIND THE LIMB. THE THIRD, SEEN AT 0829Z WAS A LARGE AND RELATIVELY FAST EVENT THAT APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE X2 FLARE. REGION 8214 (N28W34) HAS NOT BEEN IMPRESSIVE IN TERMS OF FLARE PRODUCTION, BUT IT CONTINUES TO GROW IN COMPLEXITY AND CONTINUES TO DISPLAY VERY HOT PLAGE. SOME OPPOSITE POLARITY FLUX IS EMERGING JUST WEST OF THE LEADER SPOT, AND THIS PART OF THE GROUP APPEARS TO BE THE 'HOT SPOT' IN THE REGION. REGION 8210 (S15W75) IS APPROACHING WEST LIMB, MAKING ANALYSIS MORE DIFFICULT. THERE MAY BE SOME REFORMING OF THE DELTA CONFIGURATION IN THE LEADER SPOT. A 10 DEGREE FILAMENT NEAR N20W46 DISAPPEARED BETWEEN 05/1130Z AND 06/0657Z.NEW REGION 8218 (S23E74) WAS ASSIGNED TODAY AND IS A SIMPLE AXX SPOT GROUP.
IB. Solaktivitetsprognose
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MODERATE. THERE CONTINUES TO BE A FAIR CHANCE FOR MORE MAJOR FLARES, PARTICULARLY FROM REGION 8210. REGION 8214 ALSO HAS A GOOD CHANCE OF PRODUCING M-CLASS EVENTS AND SOME POSSIBILITY FOR MAJOR FLARES OR PROTON EVENTS.
IIA. Geofysisk aktivitetsoversigt 05-2100Z til 06-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET TO UNSETTLED. A GREATER THAN 10 MEV PROTON EVENT BEGAN AT 0835Z AND QUICKLY REACHED A MAXIMUM OF 210 PFU AT 0945Z. THE GREATER THAN 100 MEV PROTONS WERE ALSO ENHANCED AND REACHED EVENT LEVEL (GREATER THAN 1 PFU) AT 0830Z. THE GREATER THAN 100 MEV PROTONS REACHED A MAXIMUM OF 2.9 PFU AT 0840 AND DROPPED BELOW THRESHOLD AT 1335Z. THIS PROTON EVENT SHOWED SPECTRAL CHARACTERISTICS THAT ARE TYPICAL OF WELL-CONNECTED EVENTS. THE FLUX LEVELS WERE STEADILY DECLINING AT FORECAST ISSUE TIME.
IIB. Geofysisk aktivitetsprognose
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD SHOULD BE MOSTLY UNSETTLED UNTIL THE POSSIBLE ARRIVAL OF EFFECTS FROM THE LEADING EDGE OF TODAY'S CME EVENTS ASSOCIATED WITH REGION 8210. THE LATER CME WAS SUFFICIENTLY FAST THAT IT WILL VERY LIKELY OVERTAKE THE EARLIER CME. ARRIVAL OF THE SHOCK IS EXPECTED VERY LATE ON THE 7TH OR EARLY ON THE 8TH, AND A PERIOD OF STRONG ACTIVITY IS LIKELY SHORTLY THEREAFTER. MID-LATITUDES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT MINOR TO MAJOR STORM LEVELS AND HIGH LATITUDES COULD HAVE PERIODS OF SEVERE STORM LEVELS. CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST AT ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM LEVELS THROUGH 09/1200Z, AFTER WHICH ACTIVITY SHOULD CALM DOWN TO MOSTLY UNSETTLED CONDITIONS. THE PROTON EVENT IS EXPECTED TO END WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS.
III. Hændelsessandsynligheder 07 MAY til 09 MAY
Klasse M75%75%65%
Klasse X20%20%15%
Proton20%20%15%
PCAFYELLOW
IV. Penticton 10,7 cm Flux
  Observeret       06 MAY 130
  Forudsagt   07 MAY-09 MAY  130/125/125
  90 dages gennemsnit        06 MAY 106
V. Geomagnetiske A-indekser
OBSERVED AFR/AP 05 MAY  023/036
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 06 MAY  007/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 07 MAY-09 MAY  010/020-045/050-020/025
VI. Geomagnetisk aktivitetssandsynlighed 07 MAY til 09 MAY
A. Mellemste breddegrader
Aktiv20%10%20%
Mindre storm20%25%20%
Større-alvorlig storm15%45%15%
B. Høje breddegrader
Aktiv20%10%20%
Mindre storm20%20%30%
Større-alvorlig storm15%50%35%

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