查看星期一, 17 1月 2005歷史檔案

太陽活動報表

本報告中提到的任何太陽耀斑都有太空天氣預報中心(SWPC) 應用的比例因子。由於 SWPC 比例因子,據報導太陽耀斑比科學質量數據小 42%。比例因子已從我們存檔的太陽耀斑資料中刪除,以反映真實的物理單位。
太陽地球物理活動報告 2005 Jan 17 2200 UTC
由美國國家海洋暨大氣總署 NOAA 及 太空天氣預測中心 SWPC 複製並編製,並由 ©SpaceWeatherLive.com 處理

美國空軍/美國國家海洋暨大氣總署太陽與地球物理活動聯合報告

SDF 編號 017 在 17 Jan 2005 上以 2200Z 發行

IA. 太陽活動區域和 16-2100Z到 17-2100Z的活動分析

Solar activity was high. Region 720 (N13W30) continued to produce flare activity with the largest being an X3/2f at 17/0952 UTC. This flare was associated with a complex full-halo CME directed mostly towards the northwest. Although this region remains large and magnetically complex some restructuring of the sunspots was apparent following this flare. New Region 723 (N06E77) is rotating around the east limb.
IB. 太陽活動預報
Solar activity is expected to remain at high to very high levels. Region 720 could produce yet another major solar event.
IIA. 地球物理活動摘要 16-2100Z 至 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to severe storm levels. Solar wind conditions observed by the NASA ACE spacecraft show a fairly complex onset of activity which may suggest the arrival of a solar wind structure from combined CMEs expected from previous major flares on 15 January. The proton event at greater than 10 MeV that began on 16/0210 UTC remains in progress. The latest X3 flare discussed in Part IA has increased the current peak flux to 5040 pfu observed at 17/1750 UTC. A proton event at greater than 100 MeV also resulted from the X3 flare, beginning at 17/1215 UTC and with a current peak flux of 28 pfu observed at 17/1700 UTC. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux observed by the GOES spacecraft, as well as the solar wind parameters observed by the ACE SWEPAM instruments, have been rendered temporarily unusable due to the energetic proton event.
IIB. 地球物理活動預報
The geomagnetic field is expected to continue at major to severe storm levels. Another CME arrival is expected late on 18 January, or possibly early on 19 January, due to today's X3 flare, which should keep geomagnetic activity levels elevated. The current proton events are expected to remain in progress.
III. 事件機率 18 Jan 至 20 Jan
M級90%90%90%
X級30%30%30%
質子99%99%99%
碳核算金融聯盟in progress
IV. 彭迪克頓10.7厘米通量
  觀測的       17 Jan 138
  預測的   18 Jan-20 Jan  135/130/120
  90天平均值        17 Jan 107
V. 地磁 A 指數
  觀測的 Afr/Ap 16 Jan  010/012
  估算值     Afr/Ap 17 Jan  060/080
  預測的    Afr/Ap 18 Jan-20 Jan  060/080-050/050-030/030
VI. 地磁活動機率 18 Jan 至 20 Jan
A. 中緯度
可見15%20%50%
小風暴50%50%30%
特大強風暴35%30%10%
B. 高緯度
可見10%10%50%
小風暴50%50%30%
特大強風暴40%40%20%

所有時間均採用 UTC 時間

<< 回到每日概觀

最新新聞

請支持 SpaceWeatherLive.com!

有非常多網友來到SpaceWeatherLive追蹤太陽活動,或確認是否能看見極光,但隨著網站流量增長,維持伺服器的費用也越來越高。如果你喜愛SpaceWeatherLive,可以考慮捐贈維護費用,如此我們可以一起讓網站持續上線!

62%
透過購買我們的商品來支持SpaceWeatherLive
查看我們的商品

最新警報

取得即時警報

太空天氣大事紀

上一個 X-閃焰15/05/2024X2.9
上一個 M-閃焰19/05/2024M1.6
上一個 地球磁爆17/05/2024Kp6 (G2)
無黑子天數
上一個無黑子日08/06/2022
黑子數月平均
4月 2024136.5 +31.6
5月 2024155.9 +19.4
Last 30 days163.2 +40.8

歷史上的今天*

太陽閃焰
12004M3.73
22023M2.6
32002M2.14
41997M1.73
52023M1.4
ApG
1197348G3
2194845G2
3198444G2
4200329G2
5198329G2
*始於1994

社群網站