未來三日預報

發布時間: 2024 May 08 1230 UTC
由美國商務部、美國國家海洋及大氣管理局 NOAA、太空天氣預測中心編制，並由SpaceWeatherLive.com處理。

A. NOAA美國國家海洋及大氣管理局地磁活動觀測和預報

過去24小時內觀測到的最高3小時Kp指數為 3 (低於 NOAA 美國國家海洋及大氣管理局等級水平).

預期的May 08-May 10 2024的最高3小時Kp值 3 (.67低於 NOAA 美國國家海洋及大氣管理局等級水平).

NOAA Kp 美國國家海洋及大氣管理局極光指數值分析

             May 08       May 09       May 10
00-03UT       1.33         1.67         2.67     
03-06UT       2.33         2.33         2.33     
06-09UT       1.67         2.00         2.00     
09-12UT       2.67         2.67         2.00     
12-15UT       2.00         3.33         2.00     
15-18UT       1.00         3.67         2.00     
18-21UT       2.00         2.67         2.00     
21-00UT       2.00         2.67         2.00     

基本原理

No G1 (Minor) 或更大 geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA 美國國家海洋及大氣管理局太陽輻射活動觀測與預報

在過去的24小時內，由美國國家海洋及大氣管理局的對地靜止運轉環境衛星NOAA GOES-18觀測到的太陽輻射低於S級風暴等級的閾值。

May 08-May 10 2024的太陽輻射風暴預報

              May 08  May 09  May 10
S1 或更大   25%     25%     25%

基本原理

There is a chance for S1 (Minor) 或更大 solar radiation storms over the next three days primarily due to the potential from ARs 3663 and 3664.

C. NOAA美國國家海洋及大氣管理局無線中斷活動觀測和預報

Radio blackouts reaching the R3 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at May 08 2024 0141 UTC.

May 08-May 10 2024的無線電消光預報

              May 08        May 09        May 10
R1-R2           90%           90%           90%
R3 或更大   50%           50%           50%

基本原理

R1-2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts due to M-class flare activity are expected through the forecast period given the evolution of ARs 3663 and 3664 as well as their recent flare history. In addition, a high chance for an isolated R3 (Strong) radio blackout will persist as well given AR 3663s history of X-class flares.