發布時間: 2024 Feb 23 1230 UTC
Solar activity reached high levels as a result of AR3590 (N18E26,
Fkc/beta-gamma-delta) producing an X6.3/3b flare at 22/2234 UTC,
which is this largest flare of this solar cycle. A tenflare of 240 SFU
was associated with this event and peaked at 22/2225 UTC. No resulting
CME was observed in coronagraph imagery. New Region 3591 (S34E77,
Hsx/alpha) produced an M1.5 flare at 22/0014 UTC. Regions 3592 (S12E78,
Dso/beta)and 3593 (S04W58, Bxo/beta) were numbered this period and were
mostly inactive. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.
High solar activity is expected to continue through 25 Feb with M-class
flares being likely, and a chance for X-class flares due to the recent
history of ARs 3590 and 3591.
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at near-background levels.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels.
There is a slight chance for an S1 (Minor) proton event for the next
three days (23-25 Feb) due primarily to the potential of AR3590. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal to
The solar wind environment was at nominal levels. Total field strength
peaked at 7 nT and Bz was variable. Wind speeds averaged near 325 km/s.
Phi switched from positive to negative around 23/0900 UTC.
Nominal levels are expected through 24 Feb. CME and CH HSS influences
are forecast for 25 Feb. The bulk of the CME is expected to pass ahead
of Earths orbit.
The geomagnetic field remained at quiet levels while the IMF returned to
Mostly quiet conditions are anticipated through 24 Feb. G1 (Minor) storm
levels are likely to be reached on 25 Feb with combined effects of the
21 Feb CME (filament eruption) and a CH HSS.