太空天氣預報-討論

發布時間: 2024 May 08 1230 UTC
由美國商務部、美國國家海洋及大氣管理局 NOAA、太空天氣預測中心編制，並由SpaceWeatherLive.com處理。

太陽活動

24小時內評估

Solar activity reached very high levels. Region 3663 (N25W64, Fkc/beta-gamma-delta) edged closer to the western limb, making accurate analysis of its magnetic structure difficult. However, based on its recent activity, it would appear the delta configuration still remains. This region produced several M-class flares and an X1.0 flare at 08/0141 UTC. Region 3664 (S20W15, Fkc/beta-gamma-delta) also maintained its delta configuration and had significant growth in its intermediate and trailer spots. It is now the largest of the regions, with an overall areal coverage over 1,000 millionths. This region also produced several M-class flares and an X1.0 flare at 08/0509 UTC. The X flare was accompanied by Type II and IV sweeps and a 10.7 cm radio burst. A halo CME associated with this event is first visible in C2 imagery near 08/0600 UTC. Preliminary modeling efforts showed an arrival time early on 11 May. However, additional analysis and modeling are ongoing. The remaining spotted active regions were stable or in gradual decay and largely inactive.

預測

Solar activity is expected to persist at moderate to high levels over 08-10 May, with M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) expected and a high chance for X-class flares (R3/Strong), due to the continued flare potential of Regions 3663 and 3664.

高能粒子

24小時內評估

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels.

預測

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal to moderate levels over 08-10 May. There is a chance for the greater than 10 MeV proton flux to reach S1 (Minor) storm levels over 08-10 May due to the flare potential of Regions 3663 and 3664.

太陽風

24小時內評估

The solar wind environment reflected the continued, but waning influence of a positive polarity CH HSS. Total field strength was steady near 5 nT, the Bz component had no significant southward deflections, Phi was in a positive orientation, and solar wind speeds steadily decreased from near 500 km/s to 450 km/s.

預測

Elevated solar wind conditions are expected to diminish over 08 May as CH HSS influence subsides. On 09 May, possible enhancements are likely, following the anticipated glancing effects of a CME that departed the Sun on 06 May. Conditions are then expected to return to near nominal levels by the end of the period.

近地太空

24小時內評估

The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.

預測

Waning CH HSS influences are expected to further diminish through 08 May, bringing mostly quiet to unsettled conditions. By mid to late day on 08 May and into 09 May, unsettled to active conditions are possible as glancing effects from a CME that departed the Sun on 06 May are anticipated to influence Earth. By 10 May, conditions are expected to return to mostly quiet levels, with a chance for isolated unsettled levels.