太空天氣預報-討論

發布時間: 2025 Dec 05 0030 UTC
由美國商務部、美國國家海洋及大氣管理局 NOAA、太空天氣預測中心編制，並由SpaceWeatherLive.com處理。

太陽活動

24小時內評估

Solar activity reached high levels. Region 4300 (N07E28, Dao/beta-delta) produced an impulsive M6.0/1F (R2-Moderate) flare at 04/0250 UTC. Associated with the flare was a Type-II radio sweep (est. 345 km/s) and CME signature in subsequent coronagraph imagery beginning at 04/0312 UTC in SOHO/LASCO C2. CME analysis and model output suggested no Earth-directed component. A Type-IV radio sweep may have been associated with a CME originating from the SE quadrant, first observed in C2 imagery at 04/0648 UTC, in the vicinity of Region 4296 (S14E23, Ekc/beta-gamma-delta). Modelling of the event suggested the periphery of the CME may pass Earth late on 07 Dec. Growth was observed in Region 4301 (S07W58, Dai/beta). Slight decay was observed in Region 4294 (S15E04, Fkc/beta-gamma-delta) and Region 4296 (S14E23, Ekc/beta-gamma-delta). A new region of emerging flux was observed in the SW quadrant. Only minor changes were observed in other numbered active regions on the visible disk.

預測

M-class flares are expected (75%) through 07 Dec, with a chance for X-class flares (30%), given past flare history and the potential of current active regions on the disk.

高能粒子

24小時內評估

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux in geosynchronous orbit was at normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux in geosynchronous orbit remained at background levels.

預測

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at moderate levels on 05 Dec. High levels are likely on 06-07 Dec due to elevated solar wind speeds associated with the ongoing CH HSS. A slight chance (15%) exists for a greater than 10 MeV proton flux enhancement above 10 pfu (S1-Minor) through 07 Dec due to the eruptive potential of multiple active regions across the visible disk.

太陽風

24小時內評估

Solar wind parameters reflected the transition from CIR to negative polarity CH HSS influences. Total magnetic field strength decreased from a peak of 20 nT at the beginning of the reporting period to 7-9 nT after 04/0430 UTC. Bz briefly reached as far south as -14 nT at 04/0226 UTC. Solar wind speeds increased to a peak just above 700 km/s at 04/0450 UTC, before gradually waning in the hours the followed. Phi was predominantly oriented in a negative solar sector.

預測

The solar wind environment is anticipated to remain disturbed by the negative polarity CH/HSS influences over 05-07 Dec. An additional enhancement is likely late on 07 Dec due to glancing effects from the 04 Dec CME.

近地太空

24小時內評估

Geomagnetic activity reached G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels early in the period due to coronal hole influences.

預測

The geomagnetic field is likely to reach active levels, with a chance for G1 (Minor) storm levels, over 05-06 Dec as influence from the coronal hole wanes. G1 geomagnetic storm levels are likely on 07 Dec due to the anticipated onset of influence from the periphery of a CME that left the Sun on 04 Dec.