查看星期五, 27 4月 2001歷史檔案

太陽活動報表

本報告中提到的任何太陽耀斑都有太空天氣預報中心(SWPC) 應用的比例因子。由於 SWPC 比例因子,據報導太陽耀斑比科學質量數據小 42%。比例因子已從我們存檔的太陽耀斑資料中刪除,以反映真實的物理單位。
太陽地球物理活動報告 2001 Apr 27 2200 UTC
由美國國家海洋暨大氣總署 NOAA 及 太空天氣預測中心 SWPC 複製並編製,並由 ©SpaceWeatherLive.com 處理

美國空軍/美國國家海洋暨大氣總署太陽與地球物理活動聯合報告

SDF 編號 117 在 27 Apr 2001 上以 2200Z 發行

IA. 太陽活動區域和 26-2100Z到 27-2100Z的活動分析

Solar activity was moderate. Region 9433 (N18W39) produced an M1/1f flare at 27/1915 UTC along with isolated C-class subflares. Region 9433 began to gradually decay following yesterday's M7/2b flare with decreased spot count and penumbral coverage. However, a magnetic delta configuration persisted in the trailer portion of the region, where most flare activity has occurred. Region 9441 (N08E38) produced isolated subflares as it gradually increased in spot count and penumbral coverage, though it remained a moderate-sized, simply-structured spot group. New Region 9443 (S10E21), a small simple bipole, was numbered.
IB. 太陽活動預報
Activity is expected to be at moderate to high levels. Region 9433 is expected to produce mostly low-level M-class flares. However, it may produce an isolated major flare during the period.
IIA. 地球物理活動摘要 26-2100Z 至 27-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater than 10 MeV electron flux became enhanced following yesterdays M7/2b flare, but did not reach event levels.
IIB. 地球物理活動預報
A geomagnetic disturbance is expected to commence during the latter half of 28 April and continue into 29 April following yesterday's M7/2b flare and associated full-halo CME . Active to major storm levels will be possible during this disturbance. Mostly unsettled levels are expected during 30 April. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux could increase to event levels on 28 April. Region 9433 may produce a proton flare during the period.
III. 事件機率 28 Apr 至 30 Apr
M級75%75%75%
X級20%20%20%
質子20%20%20%
碳核算金融聯盟yellow
IV. 彭迪克頓10.7厘米通量
  觀測的       27 Apr 191
  預測的   28 Apr-30 Apr  185/180/175
  90天平均值        27 Apr 167
V. 地磁 A 指數
  觀測的 Afr/Ap 26 Apr  008/007
  估算值     Afr/Ap 27 Apr  005/008
  預測的    Afr/Ap 28 Apr-30 Apr  015/010-040/040-012/020
VI. 地磁活動機率 28 Apr 至 30 Apr
A. 中緯度
可見25%30%40%
小風暴20%35%20%
特大強風暴05%10%05%
B. 高緯度
可見30%25%45%
小風暴25%40%25%
特大強風暴10%15%10%

所有時間均採用 UTC 時間

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