Viewing archive of måndag, 3 oktober 2011
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2011 Oct 03 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 276 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 03 Oct 2011IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 02-2100Z till 03-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24
hours. Region 1302 (N13W69) produced the largest event of the
period, a C7/2n x-ray flare at 03/0030Z. Region 1302 remains the
largest sunspot group on the visible disk but has begun to simplify
magnetically and decrease in size. Many of the regions on the disk,
also appear to be in a waning phase. In the southeast quadrant of
the disk, two new flux regions emerged with one becoming new Region
1310 (S33E16).
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to remain
at low levels for the next two days (04-05 October), as Region 1302
rotates off the west limb. Predominantly very low levels are
expected to prevail on day three (06 October).
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 02-2100Z till 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at predominantly quiet levels for the
past 24 hours. Solar wind speeds, as measured by the ACE spacecraft,
show nominal speeds around 400 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet levels on day one (04 October). An increase
to active and possible minor storm levels is expected on days two
and three (05-06 October) as three Earthbound CMEs are forecasted
to arrive.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 04 Oct till 06 Oct
| M-klass | 20% | 15% | 01% |
| X-klass | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 03 Oct 129 Prognoserat 04 Oct-06 Oct 125/125/120 90 Day Mean 03 Oct 112
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 02 Oct 007/011 Förväntat Afr/Ap 03 Oct 003/005 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 04 Oct-06 Oct 005/005-015/015-018/018
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 04 Oct till 06 Oct
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 05% | 30% | 35% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 01% | 15% | 15% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 15% | 40% | 40% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 05% | 30% | 30% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 05% | 05% |
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