Viewing archive of tisdag, 4 oktober 2011
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2011 Oct 04 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 277 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 04 Oct 2011IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 03-2100Z till 04-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24
hours. Region 1302 (N13W85) produced the largest event of the
period, a long duration C7/Sf x-ray flare at 04/0923Z. Two new
regions were numbered today, Region 1311 (S12E20) in the southeast
quadrant, and Region 1312 (N22E74) in the northeast quadrant.
Finally, a full halo CME was observed in LASCO C2 imagery 04/1248Z.
After careful analysis, this event was determined to be a farsided,
non-Earth directed event.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels with a slight chance for M-class flares for the next
three days (05-07 October). These slightly elevated flare
probabilities are due to there being over 8 active sunspot regions
on the disk. Even though Region 1302 will be rotating off the
visible disk in one day, Region 1311 and 1310 (S32E02) have shown
some rapid development.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 03-2100Z till 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at predominantly quiet levels for the
past 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be active with isolated minor storm levels possible on
days one and two (05-06 October), as three Earthbound CMEs are
forecasted to arrive. A return to quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (07 October) is expected, as the effects of the CMEs wane.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 05 Oct till 07 Oct
| M-klass | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| X-klass | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 04 Oct 130 Prognoserat 05 Oct-07 Oct 125/120/120 90 Day Mean 04 Oct 112
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 03 Oct 003/006 Förväntat Afr/Ap 04 Oct 005/007 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 05 Oct-07 Oct 015/015-018/018-008/008
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 05 Oct till 07 Oct
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 45% | 45% | 15% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 20% | 25% | 05% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 45% | 45% | 20% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 30% | 35% | 10% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 05% | 05% | 01% |
Senaste nytt
måndag, 22 april 2024
Lot's of sunspots! Big chance for major flare activity?
lördag, 23 mars 2024
X1.1 solar flare with earth-directed CME
onsdag, 20 mars 2024
Sunspot region 3615, G1 watch
Senaste inläggen
2024/05/03 X1.69 CME 2Unproven theories 380AR3663 24Unspecified geomagnetic activity 1006Filaments and prominences 69
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Rymdvädersfakta
| Senaste X-utbrottet | 2024/05/03 | X1.6 |
| Senaste M-utbrottet | 2024/05/03 | M2.7 |
| Senaste geomagnetiska stormen | 2024/05/02 | Kp7- (G3) |
| Fläckfria dagar | |
|---|---|
| Senaste dag utan solfläckar | 2022/06/08 |
| Månadsvis faktiskt antal solfläckar | |
|---|---|
| april 2024 | 136.5 +31.6 |
| Last 30 days | 149.4 +51.8 |