Viewing archive of tisdag, 6 september 2011
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2011 Sep 06 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 249 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 06 Sep 2011IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 05-2100Z till 06-2100Z Solar activity increased to high levels. Region 1283
(N14W18) produced an M5/1b flare at 06/0150Z associated with Types
II and IV radio sweeps and an Earth-directed full-halo CME. The CME
had an estimated speed of around 450 km/sec, based upon STEREO-A
COR2 data, with the bulk of the ejecta directed north of the
ecliptic plane. Region 1283 appeared to develop a magnetic delta
configuration in its north-central portion and was classified as an
Eai-type with a beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration. Old Region
1286 (N20, L = 310) produced multiple CMEs from beyond the west
limb, none of which were Earth-directed. New Region 1289 (N24E78)
was numbered.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate during the period (07 - 09 September) with more M-class
flare activity likely from Region 1283.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 05-2100Z till 06-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at mostly quiet levels. Proton flux
enhancements at greater than 100 MeV and greater than 10 MeV began
around 06/0300Z at geosynchronous orbit in the wake of the M5 flare
mentioned above.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at mostly quiet levels through the period (07 - 09
September). The halo-CME mentioned above is not expected to affect
the field during the forecast period.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 07 Sep till 09 Sep
| M-klass | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| X-klass | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 06 Sep 112 Prognoserat 07 Sep-09 Sep 110/105/100 90 Day Mean 06 Sep 098
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 05 Sep 004/006 Förväntat Afr/Ap 06 Sep 006/007 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 07 Sep-09 Sep 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 07 Sep till 09 Sep
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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