Viewing archive of söndag, 30 oktober 2011

Solaktivitetsrapport

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2011 Oct 30 2200 UTC
Skapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com

USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet

SDF Nummer 303 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 30 Oct 2011

IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 29-2100Z till 30-2100Z

Solar activity was low. There were several C-class flares during the past 24 hours. Most of these were from newly emerging Region 1334 (N13E24) which is currently a C-type group with area of about 70 millionths. Region 1330 (N08W35) continues to be the largest group on the disk and managed to produce two C-class flares. However, Region 1330 appears to be decreasing in sunspot area. There continues to be indicators of a new region rotating around the east limb with latitude around 15 degrees North. A CME was observed in the LASCO C2 coronagraph beginning at about 0812Z but was confirmed to be from the backside using STEREO imagery.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be generally low. There continues to be, however, a slight chance for an isolated M-class flare.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 29-2100Z till 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was initially quiet. An increase to unsettled to active levels with some minor storm periods at high latitudes occurred after 1003Z after a disturbance in the solar wind impacted the magnetosphere. The disturbance was also seen at the ACE spacecraft at about 0855Z: solar wind increased from around 280 km/s to about 320 km/s, Bt from 3 nT up to about 6 nT, and density from less than 1 p/cc up to about 6 p/cc. The solar wind parameters continued to show somewhat elevated signatures for the remainder of the period. There was also a solar sector boundary crossing on 29 October at about 2111Z from negative to positive polarity and the presence of a positive sector was clearly indicated throughout the interval. In addition, solar wind speed and temperature were showing an increasing trend near the end of the interval. It appears that the initial phase of the disturbance was related to the DSF/CME that occurred on 26 October. However, it also appears that the expected high speed stream is beginning to be evident in the solar wind observations.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled for the next 24 hours (31 October) with a chance for active periods as the high speed stream is expected to be more clearly evident. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected for the second day (01 November) and quiet levels are expected to predominate on the third day (02 November).
III. Chans för solutbrott från 31 Oct till 02 Nov
M-klass10%10%10%
X-klass01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observerad       30 Oct 127
  Prognoserat   31 Oct-02 Nov  130/130/125
  90 Day Mean        30 Oct 124
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
  Observerad Afr/Ap 29 Oct  002/002
  Förväntat     Afr/Ap 30 Oct  007/008
  Prognoserat    Afr/Ap 31 Oct-02 Nov  010/010-005/008-005/005
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 31 Oct till 02 Nov
A. Medelhöga breddgrader
Aktivt35%10%10%
Små stormförhållanden10%05%05%
Svåra stormförhållanden05%01%01%
B. Höga breddgrader
Aktivt40%20%10%
Små stormförhållanden25%15%05%
Svåra stormförhållanden15%05%01%

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