Viewing archive of torsdag, 24 april 2003

Solaktivitetsrapport

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2003 Apr 24 2200 UTC
Skapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com

USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet

SDF Nummer 114 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 24 Apr 2003

IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 23-2100Z till 24-2100Z

Solar activity was at moderate levels this period. Region 338 (N18W45) produced an M3/1n at 24/1253Z with associated Type II (830 km/s) and Type IV radio sweeps. A partial halo CME was also detected on LASCO imagery. Region 339 (N16,L=337) was active during the period, producing several C-class flares as it crossed the west limb, the largest being a C8 flare at 24/1553Z. No significant changes were observed in the remaining active regions. New Regions 344 (N16E39), 345 (S17E74), and 346 (N16E74) were numbered today.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be at moderate levels. Region 338 may produce futher M-class flares.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 23-2100Z till 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to active levels with isolated minor storm periods at high latitudes. Elevated solar wind speeds up to near 600 km/s are responsible for the disturbed periods. The greater than 2 MeV electrons at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels. High speed coronal hole flow may be enhanced by transient flow over the next three days. Weak CME impact from an M5 flare on April 23 are possible on days one and two. A CME impact produced by today's M3 flare may arrive on day three.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 25 Apr till 27 Apr
M-klass40%40%30%
X-klass05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observerad       24 Apr 128
  Prognoserat   25 Apr-27 Apr  130/135/135
  90 Day Mean        24 Apr 125
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
  Observerad Afr/Ap 23 Apr  013/018
  Förväntat     Afr/Ap 24 Apr  020/023
  Prognoserat    Afr/Ap 25 Apr-27 Apr  020/020-020/025-020/025
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 25 Apr till 27 Apr
A. Medelhöga breddgrader
Aktivt30%30%30%
Små stormförhållanden30%20%20%
Svåra stormförhållanden10%10%05%
B. Höga breddgrader
Aktivt50%40%40%
Små stormförhållanden35%35%35%
Svåra stormförhållanden15%15%15%

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