Viewing archive of fredag, 25 april 2003

Solaktivitetsrapport

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2003 Apr 25 2200 UTC
Skapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com

USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet

SDF Nummer 115 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 25 Apr 2003

IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 24-2100Z till 25-2100Z

Solar activity remained at moderate levels today. The largest flare of the period was an M1/Sf which occurred at 25/0540Z from Region 346 (N16E61) and had an associated Type II radio sweep with an estimated shock velocity of 814 km/s. There seems to be little magnetic complexity to this region based on a single Hsx spot seen in white-light. Region 337 (S14W13) appears to have changed little since yesterday and remains a beta-gamma magnetic complex. Region 338 (N18W58) produced the majority of the flare activity throughout the interval which was limited to C-class events. Magnetically, this region appears to be in a decay phase as a single delta complex remains apparent verses the several complexes analyzed earlier in the period. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels. Region 338 remains capable of producing M-class events.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 24-2100Z till 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at predominantly active to minor storm levels. High speed solar wind speeds along with embedded transient activity are believed to be responsible for the elevated conditions. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at active to minor storm levels with isolated major storm conditions possible throughout the period. High speed coronal hole flow may continue to be enhanced by transient activity for the entire interval. A weak CME impact from the M5 flare on April 23 is possible on day one. Further CME effects are possible on day two resulting from the M3 flare that occurred on 24 April. The M1 that occurred today may have a very weak impact late on day two into day three.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 26 Apr till 28 Apr
M-klass50%50%50%
X-klass05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observerad       25 Apr 144
  Prognoserat   26 Apr-28 Apr  145/150/145
  90 Day Mean        25 Apr 126
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
  Observerad Afr/Ap 24 Apr  024/024
  Förväntat     Afr/Ap 25 Apr  020/025
  Prognoserat    Afr/Ap 26 Apr-28 Apr  020/025-020/025-015/020
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 26 Apr till 28 Apr
A. Medelhöga breddgrader
Aktivt45%45%30%
Små stormförhållanden25%25%20%
Svåra stormförhållanden15%15%10%
B. Höga breddgrader
Aktivt40%40%45%
Små stormförhållanden30%30%25%
Svåra stormförhållanden20%20%15%

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