Viewing archive of fredag, 28 mars 2003

Solaktivitetsrapport

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2003 Mar 28 2200 UTC
Skapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com

USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet

SDF Nummer 087 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 28 Mar 2003

IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 27-2100Z till 28-2100Z

Solar activity was low due to a single C1 flare at 27/2325Z, likely associated with activity from near the southwest limb. Region 319 (N12W18) has stabilized following a period of rapid growth in the previous 24 hours. Despite its moderate size, this region maintains a fairly simple magnetic configuration and has been stable. Region 321 (N04E21) exhibited slight decay and was relatively quiet this period. New Region 326 (S12E74) was numbered today.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to continue at low levels. Regions 319 and 321 have good potential for C-class flares and a small chance for an M-class event.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 27-2100Z till 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to active with isolated minor storm periods during local nighttime hours. The most active conditions early in the period were due to a waning high speed coronal hole stream. A weak transient passed the ACE spacecraft between 28/1400 - 1500Z. Predominantly southward Bz in the IMF resulted in active levels late in the period. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active. Isolated minor storm periods at higher latitudes are possible through day one and again on day three as another weak coronal hole moves into a geoeffective position.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 29 Mar till 31 Mar
M-klass30%30%30%
X-klass05%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observerad       28 Mar 147
  Prognoserat   29 Mar-31 Mar  150/155/150
  90 Day Mean        28 Mar 133
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
  Observerad Afr/Ap 27 Mar  016/027
  Förväntat     Afr/Ap 28 Mar  018/020
  Prognoserat    Afr/Ap 29 Mar-31 Mar  012/012-010/012-015/015
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 29 Mar till 31 Mar
A. Medelhöga breddgrader
Aktivt40%25%30%
Små stormförhållanden20%10%15%
Svåra stormförhållanden05%01%01%
B. Höga breddgrader
Aktivt50%35%40%
Små stormförhållanden25%15%20%
Svåra stormförhållanden10%05%05%

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