Viewing archive of torsdag, 27 mars 2003
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2003 Mar 27 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 086 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 27 Mar 2003IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 26-2100Z till 27-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. Region 322 (N19,
L=348) produced the two largest flares of the period, a C3.6 x-ray
flare at 27/0945Z and a C2.3 x-ray flare at 27/1455Z (both correlated
using SXI imagery). Region 321 (N05E34) has become a
beta-gamma-delta (weak) region which produced several low-level
flares during the period. Region 319 (N13W01) has shown rapid
development and has become a beta-gamma class group over the past 24
hours. Newly assigned Region 325 (N12E80-old Region 296) has begun
to rotate into view and was a large complex region on its previous
rotation. New Region 324 (S16E68) was also assigned today.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels. Regions 319 and 321 have the potential of producing
M-class flare activity
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 26-2100Z till 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm levels. The
Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field ranged from +/- 10
nT throughout the period due to a recurrent high speed stream
(approximately 525 km/s at the time of this writing). The greater
than 2 MeV electron fluxes at geosynchronous orbit reached moderate
levels today.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly active levels. Minor storm
conditions are possible through day one of the interval due to a
favorably positioned recurrent coronal hole. Days two and three
should see a return to predominantly unsettled levels with
intermittent active conditions.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 28 Mar till 30 Mar
| M-klass | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| X-klass | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 27 Mar 141 Prognoserat 28 Mar-30 Mar 150/155/155 90 Day Mean 27 Mar 132
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 26 Mar 007/008 Förväntat Afr/Ap 27 Mar 020/025 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 28 Mar-30 Mar 012/015-010/012-010/012
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 28 Mar till 30 Mar
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 30% | 25% | 25% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 40% | 30% | 30% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 10% | 05% | 05% |
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Rymdvädersfakta
| Senaste X-utbrottet | 2024/03/28 | X1.1 |
| Senaste M-utbrottet | 2024/04/27 | M3.0 |
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| Fläckfria dagar | |
|---|---|
| Senaste dag utan solfläckar | 2022/06/08 |
| Månadsvis faktiskt antal solfläckar | |
|---|---|
| mars 2024 | 104.9 -19.8 |
| Last 30 days | 137.7 +30.3 |