Viewing archive of onsdag, 23 april 2003

Solaktivitetsrapport

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2003 Apr 23 2200 UTC
Skapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com

USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet

SDF Nummer 113 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 23 Apr 2003

IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 22-2100Z till 23-2100Z

Solar activity increased to high levels this period. Region 338 (N18W32) produced an M5/1n flare at 23/0106Z. Type II (513 km/s) and Type IV radio sweeps, and a 380 sfu tenflare were associated with this event. A partial halo CME was also detected on LASCO imagery. An M2/1f flare also occurred in this region at 23/1556Z. This complex region continues to develop in both size and magnetic complexity. Region 339 (N16W84) was quite active as it approaches the west limb. It produced several C-class flares, the largest being a C5 flare at 23/1213Z. No significant changes were observed in the remaining active regions. New Region 343 (N06E60) was numbered today.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be at moderate levels. Region 338 maintains potential for further M-class activity.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 22-2100Z till 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels with isolated minor storm periods at high latitudes. Elevated solar wind speeds near 500 km/s are responsible for the disturbed periods. The greater than 2 MeV electrons at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels. Ongoing high speed coronal hole flow will likely be enhanced by transient flow over the next three days. Weak impact from the April 22, M2 flare and CME are possible on day one. There is a higher probability for CME impacts on days two and three from the M5 and associated CME that occurred early this period.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 24 Apr till 26 Apr
M-klass40%40%40%
X-klass05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observerad       23 Apr 133
  Prognoserat   24 Apr-26 Apr  135/140/145
  90 Day Mean        23 Apr 126
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
  Observerad Afr/Ap 22 Apr  013/022
  Förväntat     Afr/Ap 23 Apr  015/020
  Prognoserat    Afr/Ap 24 Apr-26 Apr  020/020-020/020-015/015
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 24 Apr till 26 Apr
A. Medelhöga breddgrader
Aktivt30%40%30%
Små stormförhållanden20%30%20%
Svåra stormförhållanden05%10%05%
B. Höga breddgrader
Aktivt40%50%40%
Små stormförhållanden30%35%30%
Svåra stormförhållanden10%15%10%

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