Viewing archive of tisdag, 22 april 2003

Solaktivitetsrapport

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2003 Apr 22 2200 UTC
Skapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com

USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet

SDF Nummer 112 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 22 Apr 2003

IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 21-2100Z till 22-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Region 338 (N18W20) continued to develop in both size and magnetic complexity. It was responsible for most of the C-class activity this period, including a C4/Sf flare at 22/2011Z. There were some indications that a weak delta configuration was developing in this region. A Type II (960 km/s) radio sweep was detected at 22/0716Z, associated with a CME off the NE limb. A CME was also detected earlier in the period, associated with a B-class flare in Region 336 (N14E10). The largest region on the disk - Region 337 (S14E29), exhibited some decay and simplification over the past 24 hours. These CMEs do not appear to be Earthward directed. Minor C-class activity was observed in Regions 337 (S14E29), and 339 (N16W71). New Region 342 (N18W07) was numbered today.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels. There is a chance for a low level M-class flare from Region 337 or Region 338.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 21-2100Z till 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was unsettled to active. A high speed solar wind stream that began early on 21 April continues. Solar wind speeds exceeded 600 km/s early in the period, but gradually declined to below 550 km/s by the end of the period. The greater than 2 MeV electrons at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels. The most disturbed periods are expected late on day one through day two due to the anticipated arrival of a CME associated with the M2/1n flare on 21/1307Z. A return to predominantly unsettled conditions is expected on day three with occasional active periods possible.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 23 Apr till 25 Apr
M-klass25%25%25%
X-klass05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observerad       22 Apr 132
  Prognoserat   23 Apr-25 Apr  140/145/145
  90 Day Mean        22 Apr 126
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
  Observerad Afr/Ap 21 Apr  012/021
  Förväntat     Afr/Ap 22 Apr  015/022
  Prognoserat    Afr/Ap 23 Apr-25 Apr  020/030-020/025-015/015
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 23 Apr till 25 Apr
A. Medelhöga breddgrader
Aktivt40%40%30%
Små stormförhållanden20%20%10%
Svåra stormförhållanden05%05%01%
B. Höga breddgrader
Aktivt50%50%40%
Små stormförhållanden30%30%15%
Svåra stormförhållanden15%15%05%

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