Viewing archive of måndag, 21 april 2003

Solaktivitetsrapport

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2003 Apr 21 2200 UTC
Skapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com

USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet

SDF Nummer 111 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 21 Apr 2003

IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 20-2100Z till 21-2100Z

Solar activity increased to moderate levels. Region 338 (N18W05) produced an M2/1n flare at 21/1307Z. Considerable radio emissions were associated with this flare, including a Type II (1200 km/s) and Type IV sweep, and a 300 sfu tenflare. A partial halo CME was also noted from LASCO imagery. This beta-gamma region is in a slow growth phase with a moderate increase in the number of sunspots visible over the past 24 hours. Region 337 (S13E43) is the largest and most complex region on the visible disk, and now contains a weak delta configuration in the 350 millionths of white light areal coverage. Only minor C-class flares have been observed so far from this region. Minor C-class activity was also observed in Region 339 (N16W58). New Regions 340 (S04E55), and 341 (S10E74), were numbered today.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. An isolated M-class flare is possible from Regions 337 or 338.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 20-2100Z till 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at predominantly unsettled to active levels with isolated high latitude minor storm periods. A high speed solar wind stream, with winds ranging from 520 - 600 km/s, continues to buffet the geomagnetic field. The greater than 2 MeV electrons at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels through day one. Minor storm periods are possible on days two and three with the anticipated arrival of the CME from today's M2 flare.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 22 Apr till 24 Apr
M-klass25%25%25%
X-klass05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observerad       21 Apr 126
  Prognoserat   22 Apr-24 Apr  135/140/145
  90 Day Mean        21 Apr 126
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
  Observerad Afr/Ap 20 Apr  012/016
  Förväntat     Afr/Ap 21 Apr  015/020
  Prognoserat    Afr/Ap 22 Apr-24 Apr  012/015-020/030-020/030
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 22 Apr till 24 Apr
A. Medelhöga breddgrader
Aktivt30%40%40%
Små stormförhållanden10%20%20%
Svåra stormförhållanden01%05%05%
B. Höga breddgrader
Aktivt40%50%50%
Små stormförhållanden15%30%30%
Svåra stormförhållanden05%15%15%

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