Viewing archive of tisdag, 25 mars 2003
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2003 Mar 25 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 084 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 25 Mar 2003IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 24-2100Z till 25-2100Z Solar activity decreased to very low levels. The
largest flare of the period was a B9.1/Sf from Region 321 (N05E65)
that occurred at 25/1636Z. This region underwent penumbral growth
during the period. Region 319 (N13E27) experienced slight
development during the period and produced a lone B-class flare
early in the day. A small 6 degree disappearing filament was
observed between 25/1700 and 1800Z which was centered at N38W10.
Regions 322 (N19W72) and 323 (S07E55) were newly assigned today.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels. There is a slight chance of an isolated M-class event
from region 321.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 24-2100Z till 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels. The greater than 2 MeV
electron fluxes at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain at quiet levels until the onset of a favorably
positioned recurrent coronal hole. The coronal hole is expected to
become geoeffective early on the first day of the forecast period.
Predominantly active conditions are anticipated and minor storm to
major storm periods are possible through the first two days of the
interval. Unsettled to active conditions are expected by day three.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 26 Mar till 28 Mar
| M-klass | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| X-klass | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 25 Mar 109 Prognoserat 26 Mar-28 Mar 115/125/135 90 Day Mean 25 Mar 132
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 24 Mar 005/010 Förväntat Afr/Ap 25 Mar 005/008 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 26 Mar-28 Mar 020/020-015/015-012/015
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 26 Mar till 28 Mar
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 35% | 25% | 20% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 35% | 30% | 30% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 15% | 10% | 10% |
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Rymdvädersfakta
| Senaste X-utbrottet | 2024/03/28 | X1.1 |
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| Fläckfria dagar | |
|---|---|
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