Viewing archive of tisdag, 24 december 2002
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2002 Dec 24 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 358 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 24 Dec 2002IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 23-2100Z till 24-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. Region 224 (S14W81)
produced two C5 flares. The first one at 24/0527 UTC and the second
one at 24/1451 UTC. Region 224 has stopped its growth phase of the
last few days. Region 226 (S28W89) continues to gradually decay and
has simplied to a beta magnetic configuration. New Region 234
(N18E73) was numbered today.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 230 has the potential for M-class activity.
Regions 224 and 226 also have M-class potential as they rotate
beyond the west limb.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 23-2100Z till 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. A weak
transient was observed by the NASA/ACE spacecraft at approximately
24/1300 UTC. Solar wind speed increased to near 575 km/s and Bz was
slightly negative. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geo-synchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with a chance of isolated active
conditions. Isolated active conditions may continue into day one of
the forecast period. By late on day one and through day two
activity is expected to be quiet to unsettled. Coronal hole effects
are expected to commence on day three of the period with isolated
active conditions possible.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 25 Dec till 27 Dec
| M-klass | 40% | 30% | 25% |
| X-klass | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 24 Dec 147 Prognoserat 25 Dec-27 Dec 145/140/140 90 Day Mean 24 Dec 167
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 23 Dec 012/026 Förväntat Afr/Ap 24 Dec 015/015 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 25 Dec-27 Dec 012/010-008/012-012/015
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 25 Dec till 27 Dec
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 15% | 10% | 20% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 05% | 01% | 10% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 15% | 15% | 25% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 05% | 05% | 15% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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Rymdvädersfakta
| Senaste X-utbrottet | 2024/05/09 | X1.1 |
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