Viewing archive of onsdag, 27 november 2002
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2002 Nov 27 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 331 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 27 Nov 2002IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 26-2100Z till 27-2100Z Solar activity was low. The largest event of the
period was a C6/Sf from Region 198 (S18W75) at 27/0119 UTC. Four
new regions were numbered today. Of these, new Region 207 (S19E69)
is the largest and most complex, and produced five subfaint C-class
flares today. The smaller and somewhat less complex new Region 204
(N16E40) produced two similar events during the period. The other
new and existing regions on the visible disk are all small and
simply structured spot groups, and produced no observed flares
today.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 198 remains a potential source of M-class
activity until it transits the west limb on day two of the forecast
period. Region 207 appears to present an additional possible source
of moderate flare activity for the period.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 26-2100Z till 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm levels. An
interplanetary shock passage was observed on the ACE spacecraft at
26/2110 UTC, in likely association with the CME activity that
occurred on 24 November. A geomagnetic sudden impulse was observed
at 26/2150 UTC (18 nT on the Boulder magnetometer) and was followed
by an isolated period of minor storming at mid and high latitudes.
Predominantly active conditions followed and persisted for most of
the remaining summary period, dropping to mainly unsettled levels
near the end. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit saw a tenfold decrease from the high values
observed yesterday.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mainly quiet to unsettled. Isolated active periods
are possible for the next 24-48 hours as the current geomagnetic
storm activity continues to wane.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 28 Nov till 30 Nov
| M-klass | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| X-klass | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 27 Nov 143 Prognoserat 28 Nov-30 Nov 150/155/160 90 Day Mean 27 Nov 171
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 26 Nov 006/014 Förväntat Afr/Ap 27 Nov 015/024 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 28 Nov-30 Nov 012/015-012/015-010/012
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 28 Nov till 30 Nov
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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