Viewing archive of måndag, 20 januari 2003
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2003 Jan 20 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 020 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 20 Jan 2003IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 19-2100Z till 20-2100Z Solar activity increased to low levels. Region 260
(N14E13) produced the largest flare during the interval, a C4.3/Sf
event occurring at 20/0710 UTC. This region has shown a slight
increase in magnetic complexity and spot coverage since yesterday.
Region 259 (N10W15) has shown decay in the intermediate spot cluster
and remains simply structured. The solar disk was mostly quiescent
throughout the period. Regions 264 (S20W02, 265 (N04E31), 266
(S23E56), and 267 (S20E77) were newly assigned today.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 19-2100Z till 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels with a brief
period of minor storm conditions (between 20/0000 to 0300 UTC) at
high latitudes. Coronal hole high speed stream effects from a
southern polar extension are believed to be responsible for the
elevated activity. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit reached moderate levels today.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to active conditions for day one of the
period as the favorably positioned coronal hole wanes. Day two
should see a return to predominantly unsettled conditions. By day
three a transequatorial recurrent coronal hole should become
geoeffective producing active to minor storm levels at both middle
and high latitudes.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 21 Jan till 23 Jan
| M-klass | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| X-klass | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 20 Jan 138 Prognoserat 21 Jan-23 Jan 135/130/120 90 Day Mean 20 Jan 161
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 19 Jan 009/016 Förväntat Afr/Ap 20 Jan 010/012 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 21 Jan-23 Jan 010/010-010/015-020/020
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 21 Jan till 23 Jan
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 25% | 20% | 40% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 05% | 05% | 25% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 10% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 25% | 35% | 45% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 10% | 10% | 30% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 05% | 15% |
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