Viewing archive of onsdag, 25 december 2002
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2002 Dec 25 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 359 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 25 Dec 2002IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 24-2100Z till 25-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. The largest event
was an optically uncorrelated C4.8 flare at 25/0546 UTC. Two of the
most active regions over the past week, Region 224 (S14W92) and
Region 226 (S28, L=122), rotated beyond the west limb today. Region
230 (S08W50) continues to decay and has lost its trailing spots.
The region is now a simple Hax spot group with an alpha magnetic
configuration. New Region 235 (N13E28) was numbered today.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be low.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 24-2100Z till 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was predominantly at unsettled levels. One
period of isolated active conditions occurred. Solar wind velocity
gradually decreased throughout the day from 540 km/s to 440 km/s and
Bz was slightly negative for most of the day. The greater than 2
MeV electron flux at geo-synchronous orbit reached high levels
today.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active. A large positive polarity coronal
hole will rotate into a geo-effective position on day two of the
period. Unsettled to active conditions are expected for day two and
day three.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 26 Dec till 28 Dec
| M-klass | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| X-klass | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 25 Dec 132 Prognoserat 26 Dec-28 Dec 130/125/120 90 Day Mean 25 Dec 167
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 24 Dec 014/018 Förväntat Afr/Ap 25 Dec 012/015 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 26 Dec-28 Dec 010/015-015/018-020/025
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 26 Dec till 28 Dec
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 10% | 20% | 30% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 01% | 10% | 15% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 15% | 25% | 35% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 05% | 10% | 20% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 05% | 10% |
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