Viewing archive of tisdag, 5 november 2002
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2002 Nov 05 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 309 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 05 Nov 2002IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 04-2100Z till 05-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. Region 177 (N16W09)
produced the two largest flares during the period, a C7.5/Sf event
occurred at 05/1257 UTC and a slightly smaller C6.4/Sn flare maximum
was recorded at 05/1610 UTC. Magnetic analysis indicates slight
growth in complexity while the average white-light area is now at
390 millionths with 17 spots. Region 180 (S10E17) only managed to
produce minor C-class flares today. Even so, the magnetic structure
to this region has shown significant growth during the period with
the dominant lead spot exhibiting a distinct delta complex. New
Region 186 (N20E02) was numbered today.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels. Both Regions 177 and 180 have M-class flare
potential.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 04-2100Z till 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to active levels. The Bz
component of the interplanetary magnetic field remained mostly
southward today. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to active levels into the first day of
the period. The elevated solar wind speeds in response to a
geoeffective high speed coronal hole stream should begin to diminish
by the end of day one, returning to predominantly quiet to unsettled
conditions on days two and three. The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux at geosynchronous orbit should reach moderate to high levels
again tomorrow, 06 November.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 06 Nov till 08 Nov
| M-klass | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| X-klass | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 05 Nov 183 Prognoserat 06 Nov-08 Nov 180/185/180 90 Day Mean 05 Nov 177
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 04 Nov 011/021 Förväntat Afr/Ap 05 Nov 015/020 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 06 Nov-08 Nov 012/015-010/010-008/010
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 06 Nov till 08 Nov
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 30% | 25% | 20% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 40% | 30% | 25% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 25% | 15% | 15% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 15% | 05% | 05% |
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Rymdvädersfakta
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