Viewing archive of onsdag, 6 november 2002

Solaktivitetsrapport

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2002 Nov 06 2200 UTC
Skapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com

USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet

SDF Nummer 310 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 06 Nov 2002

IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 05-2100Z till 06-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Region 177 (N17W22) produced the largest event of the period - a C9/Sf flare at 05/2201Z. This region has shown some decay and has been relatively quiet since producing the C9 flare. Region 180 (S10W01) continues to develop both in size and complexity. It now exhibits one, maybe two, delta configurations in a spot group exceeding 550 millionths of areal coverage. Several C-class flare were observed in this region, the largest being a C7/Sf at 0532Z. An associated Type II sweep (405 km/s) and CME were also observed, but the CME did not appear to be earthward directed. Three new regions were numbered today, and two of them - Region 187 (N07E07) and 188 (N11E22) produced minor C-class flares late in the period. Region 189 (N12E56) was also numbered today.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be moderate. Region 180 will likely produce C and M-class activity. Region 177 has potential for a small M-class flare.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 05-2100Z till 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was unsettled to active with minor storm periods at high latitudes. High speed coronal hole effects with persistent southward Bz are causing the disturbance. There are also indications of a weak transient passage late in the period, which is enhancing this disturbance. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is expected to continue at unsettled to active periods with occasional minor, or even major storm periods at high latitudes.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 07 Nov till 09 Nov
M-klass55%55%55%
X-klass10%10%10%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observerad       06 Nov 185
  Prognoserat   07 Nov-09 Nov  190/190/190
  90 Day Mean        06 Nov 177
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
  Observerad Afr/Ap 05 Nov  015/019
  Förväntat     Afr/Ap 06 Nov  015/017
  Prognoserat    Afr/Ap 07 Nov-09 Nov  012/015-008/010-008/010
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 07 Nov till 09 Nov
A. Medelhöga breddgrader
Aktivt30%25%20%
Små stormförhållanden20%15%10%
Svåra stormförhållanden11%06%02%
B. Höga breddgrader
Aktivt50%35%25%
Små stormförhållanden30%20%10%
Svåra stormförhållanden10%05%05%

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