Viewing archive of torsdag, 7 november 2002
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2002 Nov 07 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 311 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 07 Nov 2002IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 06-2100Z till 07-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 177 (N18W36) is in decay
phase, but produced a C7/Sf flare at 06/2316Z. Region 180 (S10W14)
continues to grow and now maintains three different delta
configurations in a spot group nearing 600 millionths of areal
coverage. Despite its size and apparent complexity, this region has
been relatively quiet, producing only occasional C-class flares. New
region 190 (S22E54) was numbered today.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate. Regions 180 and 177 have potential to produce M-class
flares.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 06-2100Z till 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. Coronal hole high speed
stream flow is declining, following peak speeds that exceeded 600
km/s. The sustained southward IMF Bz that persisted for the past few
days also appears to have ended. The greater than 2 MeV electrons at
geosynchronous orbit have again reached high levels.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods
during local nighttime hours. We are expecting to transition back
into a high speed stream on day three as a recurrent coronal hole
rotates into a geoeffective position.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 08 Nov till 10 Nov
| M-klass | 55% | 55% | 55% |
| X-klass | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 07 Nov 190 Prognoserat 08 Nov-10 Nov 190/190/185 90 Day Mean 07 Nov 178
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 06 Nov 012/019 Förväntat Afr/Ap 07 Nov 012/015 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 08 Nov-10 Nov 008/010-008/010-015/020
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 08 Nov till 10 Nov
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 25% | 20% | 40% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 10% | 10% | 20% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 30% | 25% | 50% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 15% | 10% | 30% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 05% | 05% | 15% |
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