Viewing archive of fredag, 11 oktober 2002
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2002 Oct 11 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 284 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 11 Oct 2002IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 10-2100Z till 11-2100Z Solar activity was low. The most interesting event of
the period was a long-duration C3/Sf event at 11/1719 UTC, with an
associated bright prominence on the west limb near S15. The
presumed source is Region 143 (S16, L=017), which had rotated beyond
the west limb early in the period. Region 139 (N09W46) was a source
of some lesser C-class activity during the period, and remains the
largest sunspot group on the visible disk, with moderate but stable
complexity in its delta magnetic configuration. Region 149 (N15E48)
has exhibited some growth and produced two C-class flares during the
period. Two new regions emerged on the disk and were numbered
today: 155 (S09W53) and 156 (N09E10).
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Regions 139 and 149 are both potential sources of
isolated moderate flare activity.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 10-2100Z till 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached moderate levels but
remained below event threshold.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominantly quiet to unsettled.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 12 Oct till 14 Oct
| M-klass | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| X-klass | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 11 Oct 179 Prognoserat 12 Oct-14 Oct 180/185/180 90 Day Mean 11 Oct 181
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 10 Oct 010/023 Förväntat Afr/Ap 11 Oct 008/010 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 12 Oct-14 Oct 010/010-008/010-008/008
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 12 Oct till 14 Oct
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 25% | 25% | 15% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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