Viewing archive of lördag, 14 september 2002

Solaktivitetsrapport

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2002 Sep 14 2200 UTC
Skapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com

USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet

SDF Nummer 257 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 14 Sep 2002

IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 13-2100Z till 14-2100Z

Solar activity was at low levels. Analysis of recent data indicating a restructuring of the magnetic field and the materialization of satellite spots warranted the separation of the two main clusters of spots in Region 105 (now centered at S07W18). Newly numbered Region 114 (S12W02) is the trailing portion of spots previously included in Region 105. Region 114 produced the largest flare of the period, a C4.5/Sf at 14/1831 UTC, and at the time of this writing, data shows only a very weak delta class spot remaining indicating continued decay of this region. Region 105 produced several C-class events today, the largest was a C4.1/Sf flare occurring at 14/1453 UTC, this region has also shown decay during the period. H-alpha imagery suggests both these regions were simultaneously responsible for the intermittent and slightly elevated x-ray flux seen during the latter part of the day. The remaining numbered regions were quiet. New Region 115 (S03E45) was also assigned today.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels. Regions 105 and 114 are both capable of producing M-class flare activity.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 13-2100Z till 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. Coronal hole high speed stream effects subsided near mid-period. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit exceeded event threshold at 14/1130 UTC and remains at high levels.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is expected to return to quiet to unsettled conditions throughout the forecast period. Greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high levels during much of the period.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 15 Sep till 17 Sep
M-klass50%50%50%
X-klass05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observerad       14 Sep 207
  Prognoserat   15 Sep-17 Sep  200/195/190
  90 Day Mean        14 Sep 176
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
  Observerad Afr/Ap 13 Sep  009/016
  Förväntat     Afr/Ap 14 Sep  008/008
  Prognoserat    Afr/Ap 15 Sep-17 Sep  008/008-008/008-008/008
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 15 Sep till 17 Sep
A. Medelhöga breddgrader
Aktivt15%15%15%
Små stormförhållanden01%01%01%
Svåra stormförhållanden01%01%01%
B. Höga breddgrader
Aktivt20%20%20%
Små stormförhållanden05%05%05%
Svåra stormförhållanden01%01%01%

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