Viewing archive of söndag, 18 augusti 2002
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2002 Aug 18 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 230 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 18 Aug 2002IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 17-2100Z till 18-2100Z Solar activity was at moderate levels. Region 69
(S08W39) produced three M-class events, the largest an M2.3 at
18/1005 UTC (optically correlated via SOHO/LASCO EIT195 imagery).
Region 69 has remained unchanged in area coverage and multiple
magnetic delta configurations. Spot count has increased to 74 spots
due to the slight dissolution to the large central penumbra region.
Region 79 (S22E04) has grown rapidly in area and spot count to 310
millionths and 38 spots. New Region 84 (S16E64) was numbered today.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate to high. Region 69 has the potential for major flare
activity.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 17-2100Z till 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The
expected interplanetary shock from the M5/CME event on 16 Aug was
observed at the L1 position by the NASA/ACE spacecraft at 18/1810
UTC. A corresponding sudden impulse of 27 nT was recorded on the
Boulder magnetometer at 18/1848 UTC. Greater than 2 MeV electron
flux at geosynchronous orbit exceeded event threshold at 18/1420
UTC, reached a maximum value of 1590 pfu at 18/1655 UTC, and fell
below threshold value at 18/1905 UTC.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active levels with a chance of isolated
minor storming. Active levels are expected on day one of the
forecast period. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected for day
two and three of the period.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 19 Aug till 21 Aug
| M-klass | 80% | 80% | 80% |
| X-klass | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Proton | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 18 Aug 241 Prognoserat 19 Aug-21 Aug 245/245/230 90 Day Mean 18 Aug 168
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 17 Aug 008/013 Förväntat Afr/Ap 18 Aug 015/020 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 19 Aug-21 Aug 025/025-012/012-010/010
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 19 Aug till 21 Aug
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 50% | 30% | 25% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 30% | 15% | 10% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 20% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 40% | 30% | 25% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 30% | 15% | 10% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 20% | 10% | 01% |
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