Viewing archive of söndag, 15 september 2002
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2002 Sep 15 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 258 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 15 Sep 2002IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 14-2100Z till 15-2100Z Solar activity increased to moderate levels. Region
105 (S07W31) produced the largest flare during the period, an M1/Sf
flare which occurred at 15/1738 UTC with associated minor discrete
radio bursts. Slow decay continues in this region as satellite
spots and penumbral coverage diminish. Region 114 (S12W15) produced
a single optically correlated flare today, a C1/Sf flare occurring
at 15/1538 UTC. The delta magnetic class spot seen yesterday is no
longer evident, decay of spot cluster continues. Region 103
(N16W84) produced a C1/Sf flare at 15/0926 UTC and has begun to exit
the visible disk. New Regions 116 (S09E75) and 117 (N15E05) were
assigned today.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 14-2100Z till 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux exceeded event threshold today at 15/1140
UTC (max flux 1620 pfu's at 15/1625 UTC). Levels remain above event
threshold at the time of this writing.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux may remain elevated throughout the forecast period.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 16 Sep till 18 Sep
| M-klass | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| X-klass | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 15 Sep 188 Prognoserat 16 Sep-18 Sep 185/180/180 90 Day Mean 15 Sep 176
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 14 Sep 007/011 Förväntat Afr/Ap 15 Sep 006/008 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 16 Sep-18 Sep 007/008-007/008-007/008
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 16 Sep till 18 Sep
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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