Viewing archive of måndag, 4 november 2002
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2002 Nov 04 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 308 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 04 Nov 2002IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 03-2100Z till 04-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. Region 180 (S10E30)
produced the largest flare of the period, an impulsive C4.4/Sf flare
at 04/1823 UTC. This region has more than doubled in white-light
penumbral coverage since yesterday and produced the vast majority of
the reported flare activity today. A gamma magnetic structure
remains evident. Region 177 (N16E05) has shown slight decay today
although it remains a beta-gamma magnetic group. The largest event
seen today from this region was a C3.7/Sf flare that occurred at
04/0330 UTC. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels. Regions 177 and 180 exhibit the potential
for M-class flare production.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 03-2100Z till 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to active levels. The Bz
component of the interplanetary magnetic field was mostly southward
and the solar wind speed was elevated throughout the period in
response to a geoeffective high speed coronal hole stream.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to active levels with occasional minor
to major storm levels mostly at high latitudes through day two.
Mostly unsettled conditions with isolated active periods are
expected on day three.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 05 Nov till 07 Nov
| M-klass | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| X-klass | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 04 Nov 177 Prognoserat 05 Nov-07 Nov 175/175/180 90 Day Mean 04 Nov 176
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 03 Nov 015/027 Förväntat Afr/Ap 04 Nov 018/020 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 05 Nov-07 Nov 012/015-010/012-008/010
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 05 Nov till 07 Nov
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 35% | 30% | 30% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 20% | 20% | 10% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 45% | 35% | 35% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 30% | 25% | 20% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 20% | 15% | 10% |
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Rymdvädersfakta
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