Viewing archive of måndag, 2 december 2002
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2002 Dec 02 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 336 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 02 Dec 2002IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 01-2100Z till 02-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 208 (N10E35) produced
the largest event of the period, a C9/Sf flare at 02/1927 UTC. This
region has undergone minor growth in size and spot count and shown
an increase in magnetic complexity over the past 24 hours. Region
207 (S20E06) remains the largest region on the visible disk, and
produced a C1/Sf flare at 02/2033 UTC. An impressive partial-halo
CME was visible over the northwest limb in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery
starting at about 02/1750 UTC, but a lack in corresponding
observations of notable x-ray enhancement or optical flare activity
suggests a likely backside source for this event. Two new regions
were numbered today: Region 211 (S08E04) and Region 212 (N13E75).
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be
predominantly low, with a slight chance for moderate flare activity
during the next three days. Region 208 appears to be the most
likely source for possible M-class activity during the period.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 01-2100Z till 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit again reached high levels
today.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for the next three days.
Greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is likely
to persist at high levels for the next one to three days.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 03 Dec till 05 Dec
| M-klass | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| X-klass | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 02 Dec 146 Prognoserat 03 Dec-05 Dec 155/160/175 90 Day Mean 02 Dec 169
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 01 Dec 016/016 Förväntat Afr/Ap 02 Dec 010/015 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 03 Dec-05 Dec 012/015-010/012-005/008
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 03 Dec till 05 Dec
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 25% | 20% | 15% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 30% | 25% | 20% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 05% | 01% | 01% |
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