SOLAR ACTIVITY RETURNED TO LOW LEVELS. REGION 8471 (N28W26) PRODUCED SEVERAL LOW LEVEL C-CLASS SUBFLARES. ON 28 FEB, PRIOR TO THE M6/2B, THIS REGION DEVELOPED A DELTA MAGNETIC CLASSIFICATION OF MODERATE STRENGTH. IN THE INTERIM, THIS DELTA FADED AND OVERALL THE REGION DECAYED SLIGHTLY IN PENUMBRAL COVERAGE. THE MAIN NEUTRAL LINE IN THIS REGION WAS ALMOST LINEAR SUGGESTING MAGNETIC SHEAR AT THAT LOCATION, BUT VECTOR MAGNETOGRAPH DATA WERE NOT AVAILABLE TO CONFIRM THIS SUPPOSITION. REGION 8475 (N32E16) EXHIBITED GROWTH AND PRODUCED SEVERAL SUBFLARES. A DELTA MAGNETIC CONFIGURATION MAY BE FORMING IN THIS REGION. TWO SMALL AREAS OF PLAGE AND SPOTS EMERGED NEAR S15W07. THERE WERE NUMBERED AS NEW REGION 8478. THIS AREA MAY BE SPLIT INTO TWO SEPARATE REGIONS IN THE NEAR FUTURE.

SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD BECOME LOW TO MODERATE. REGION 8471 REMAINS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING AN ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENT BUT FLARE FREQUENCY SHOULD DECREASE AS DECAY CONTINUES. REGION 8475 SHOULD BEGIN TO PRODUCE FREQUENT C-CLASS EVENTS AND ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENTS SHOULD GROWTH AND INCREASING MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY CONTINUE.

THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD RANGED FROM UNSETTLED TO MINOR STORM LEVELS. THE MOST DISTURBED PERIODS WERE 01/0000-0600Z AND 01/1200-1800Z. SOLAR WIND DATA SHOWED A LOW SPEED, HIGH DENSITY FLOW WITH NORTHWARD BZ DURING THE DISTURBANCE. IT IS POSSIBLE THIS DISTURBANCE WAS RELATED TO A FILAMENT DISRUPTION IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT ON 24-25 FEB. AT THE END OF THE PERIOD, SOLAR WIND VELOCITY WAS INCREASING AND DENSITY WAS DECREASING.

THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD SHOULD BE PREDOMINANTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. ISOLATED ACTIVE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THAT TIME. A SMALL CORONAL HOLE SHOULD BEGIN TO AFFECT THE EARTH'S FIELD ON 02-03 MAR.

  Osservato       01 MAR 120
  Previsto   02 MAR-04 MAR  120/120/118
  Media di 90 Giorni        01 MAR 144

OBSERVED AFR/AP 28 FEB  010/014
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 01 MAR  024/025
PREDICTED AFR/AP 02 MAR-04 MAR  015/015-012/012-012/010