Affichage des archives de mercredi, 14 septembre 2005
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2005 Sep 14 2216 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 257 publié à 2200Z le 14 Sep 2005IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 13-2100Z au 14-2100Z Solar activity continues at high levels. An impulsive
X1.7/1b flare was observed at 13/2322 UTC from Region 808 (S11W10).
This flare occurred during the decay phase of yesterdays double peak
X1 proton flare. This X1.7 event had an associated 180 sfu tenflare.
Region 808 exhibited little change over the past 24 hours and still
maintains a strong beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate to high. Region 808 has the potential for further M and
X-class flares.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 13-2100Z au 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to minor storm levels. Minor
storm conditions were the result of elevated solar wind speeds and
long periods of southward Bz in the IMF. The greater than 10 MeV
proton flux crossed the 10 pfu event threshold at 14/0040 UTC in
response to an influx of energetic particles from the recent X1
flares late on 13 September. This new proton enhancement reached a
maximum of 183 pfu at 14/1520 UTC before declining to around 50 pfu
by the end of the period. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit was at high levels again today.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
The geomagnetic field is
expected to reach major to severe storm levels on 15 September
following the anticipated arrival of the CME associated with the 13
September X1 flares. Minor storm to major storm periods are possible
on 16 September decreasing to mostly unsettled by 17 September. The
greater than 10 MeV proton event may increase temporarily with the
shock arrival.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 15 Sep au 17 Sep
| Classe M | 75% | 70% | 65% |
| Classe X | 50% | 40% | 40% |
| Proton | 99% | 60% | 40% |
| PCAF | in progress | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 14 Sep 117 Prévisionnel 15 Sep-17 Sep 110/110/105 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 14 Sep 092
V. Indice géomagnetique A
Observé Afr/Ap 13 Sep 026/051 Estimé Afr/Ap 14 Sep 018/025 Prévisionnel Afr/Ap 15 Sep-17 Sep 050/075-018/030-008/015
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 15 Sep au 17 Sep
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 10% | 35% | 20% |
| Tempête mineure | 20% | 20% | 10% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 60% | 10% | 01% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 10% | 35% | 30% |
| Tempête mineure | 20% | 35% | 15% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 70% | 20% | 05% |
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