Affichage des archives de mardi, 13 septembre 2005
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2005 Sep 13 2223 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 256 publié à 2200Z le 13 Sep 2005IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 12-2100Z au 13-2100Z Solar activity was high. Region 808 (S11E04) produced
an M1.3 at 13/1121 UTC and an X1.5/3b at 13/1927 UTC. Strong
centimetic radio bursts accompanied this flare including a 4900 sfu
Tenflare and a 24,000 sfu burst on the 8800 MHz frequency. The X1.5
flare initially began as an impulsive flare; however, X-ray flux
values began rising again resulting in a long duration event with a
second peak above X1 levels. LASCO imagery shows a very bright and
fast full halo CME with this event with a preliminary speed estimate
of 1500 km/s. Region 808 underwent some slow decay over the last 24
hours, but still retains a strong beta-gamma-delta configuration.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate to high. Region 808 has potential for M and X-class
activity.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 12-2100Z au 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to major storm levels.
Storm conditions persisted through much of this period due to
transient flow from the intense CME activity over the past several
days. Conditions returned to predominantly unsettled levels by the
end of the period. Solar wind speed at ACE remains elevated, but
decreased from a high near 800 km/s to approximately 650 km/s by the
end of the period. The greater than 10 MeV proton event that began
on 08 September fell below the 10 pfu threshold today. The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels
today.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to minor storm levels on 14 September. On
15 September, major to severe storm periods are possible due to the
expected arrival of the CME associated with today's X1 flare.
Conditions should subside to mostly unsettled to active levels by 16
September, with isolated minor storm periods possible.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 14 Sep au 16 Sep
| Classe M | 80% | 75% | 70% |
| Classe X | 50% | 40% | 30% |
| Proton | 40% | 40% | 30% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 13 Sep 114 Prévisionnel 14 Sep-16 Sep 115/110/110 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 13 Sep 092
V. Indice géomagnetique A
Observé Afr/Ap 12 Sep 032/066 Estimé Afr/Ap 13 Sep 025/060 Prévisionnel Afr/Ap 14 Sep-16 Sep 018/025-050/100-015/020
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 14 Sep au 16 Sep
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 30% | 10% | 30% |
| Tempête mineure | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 10% | 70% | 05% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 35% | 10% | 30% |
| Tempête mineure | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 15% | 70% | 10% |
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